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#221
06-06-2007, 01:58 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, if someone was running at 50% ITM, they'd need 12.5:1 on their money to make this neutral EV. edit: I'll have to give WVU more credit. I guess he knows how to run a sharp hustle. [/ QUOTE ] challengers 0 WVU 27 anyone here still think they can beat this? |
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#222
06-06-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
i think youd be stupid to take that bet......
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#223
06-06-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Now thats more like it. [/ QUOTE ] Welcome to 10th-grade math class? [ QUOTE ] You can even use 44.4% ITM rate and you are still favored to be unsuccessful. Math or no math there are still players who like to boast and brag and thus I have my target challengers. JohnnyRocket even guarantees he knows 2 who can beat this. LOL [/ QUOTE ] I'm pretty sure Johnny means he thinks those two players are +EV to take the bet. If I'm offering 10:1 you can't roll a six on a fair die, just because you take the bet, roll the die, and fail to roll a six doesn't mean I wasn't stupid for offering 10:1 on a 5:1 shot or that you weren't right to take it. [/ QUOTE ] "i guarentee you spacegravy and darinvg could win this bet " doesn't sound that way to me |
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#224
06-06-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
I have put some serious thought into this after going 63% myself over 200 tourneys. The 10-1 payout would have to be close to 75%. Even still there will be temptation to play some of this with buddies to pad your win rate. I would be scammed for sure. -WVU77 [/ QUOTE ] WVU, what's your stars poker name? [ QUOTE ] WVU, Best of luck with your challenge. Seems like you are running into road blocks. Table limits are too high, $1000 prize up for grabs is to low, etc. etc. Don't know about you, but I'm thinking of bringing back the weekly tournaments. With all this talk over at 2+2, these guys might give some of the Rx's top players a run for the money. But does that mean we have to lower the stakes to $5.50 ?? [/ QUOTE ] LOL @ the guys at the no name site thinking everyone's broke over here. edit: the reason for the guys wanting to do the challenge at lower stakes is that their probability of cashing is greater than at their current level. You'd be stupid to do this bet at a higher level than necessary. |
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#227
06-06-2007, 03:46 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have put some serious thought into this after going 63% myself over 200 tourneys. The 10-1 payout would have to be close to 75%. Even still there will be temptation to play some of this with buddies to pad your win rate. I would be scammed for sure. -WVU77 [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] You posted my quote that was referring to heads up play. I was considering setting up a challenge with heads up tourneys. |
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#228
06-06-2007, 04:53 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] fwiw, if someone was running at 50% ITM, they'd need 12.5:1 on their money to make this neutral EV. edit: I'll have to give WVU more credit. I guess he knows how to run a sharp hustle. [/ QUOTE ] challengers 0 WVU 27 anyone here still think they can beat this? [/ QUOTE ] I find it absolutely hilarious that you read this and didn't instantly see that the guy made a mistake (and a huge one at that). A 50% ITM would give you even odds to win that bet, and if you can't see that, I would love to have you as my bookie. |
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#229
06-06-2007, 05:01 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I have put some serious thought into this after going 63% myself over 200 tourneys. The 10-1 payout would have to be close to 75%. Even still there will be temptation to play some of this with buddies to pad your win rate. I would be scammed for sure. -WVU77 [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] You posted my quote that was referring to heads up play. I was considering setting up a challenge with heads up tourneys. [/ QUOTE ] Just when Indy banished himself from the forum. |
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#230
06-06-2007, 05:04 PM
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Re: WVU Poker Challenge
Let me clarify what my math is indicating.
This calculation relates the probability that someone will cash 50 times out of 100 if he/she has a 50% chance in cashing in 1 independent event. This corresponds to the p=0.5. Using the distribution, you obtain 7.96% chance of cashing 50 times out of 100 with a 50% edge over the other 9 players in the sng. I obtained the 12.5:1 by saying 1/0.07958. This maybe falliable, but the previous is not. I'm sorry if I wasn't precise with my wording in the initial post. Nonetheless, this is very hard to do. |
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