50NL - combo draw against a TAG

[BevillTheDevil]

Villian is 19/12/2.9 over 2251 hands, hes a decent reg plays pretty ABC and seems to avoid marginal spots for the most part. Whats your flop line here??


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.75
Hero: $105.80
SB: $98.70
BB: $110.88

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $34</font>, Hero...

[Gelford]

Pushes ... to much dead money in the pot to fold now, and you can't wait for the turn, as you equity is big now with two cards to come.

Calling and hitting the flush might be met by a fold, and you don't get paid off also ... etc etc, yadi yada

You are a favorite over AA and even a set hasn't got you killed, so .....

[Atlanta Andrew]

I think villain's hand is a set such a high % of the time here that you can fold, being this deep.

What are your other options...push? Our fold equity is very low at this point, and unless villain has a different spade draw, the best we can hope for is a 50/50 flip when less than 10% of hero's stack was invested to begin with.

Call? This seems like the worst option and could set up a very ugly situation on the turn.

-Andrew

[ssdex]

I don't really think you have a "combo draw" here.... i think villain either has AA KK... very rarely.... 2 pair that puts you in terrible shape.... almost never a higher flush draw and one of the 3 sets like always...... im not getting 200bb's in here as a big dog with only 20 bb's in the pot.... if you had 2 draws, which im pretty sure you don't, i would say get it in..... if the action was the opposite, but villain is never folding to a shove..... so i think this is a -ev situation to 9 outs... please fold

[Atlanta Andrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushes ... to much dead money in the pot to fold now

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has less than 10% of his stack invested at this point.

[ QUOTE ]
You are a favorite over AA and even a set hasn't got you killed, so .....

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is not a favorite over AA (it's 50/50), and villain has a set here way more often than an overpair, considering hero's description of villain.

-Andrew

[ssdex]

also, this is b/c of your desciption of villain....... if he is a crazy tag or lag, then its much different as you have some fold equity if he played an overpair like a monkey, your ahead of as ks and as qs and he might do this with straight draws.....