early game: to set farm or not?

[Galwegian]

Not a specific hand, but I did some mathematics on calling with pp in the early game hoping to flop a set. I was prompted to do this by the following comment of Kevin8432 concerning early game hand selection
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22+ should always be played even for a standard raise.

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I don't think that the math bears this out. Lets say we're playing standard full tilt 9 handed stt - starting stack 1500 - blinds 15/30. The standard opening raise is 105. Lets say we have one opponent. In order to call and be profitable, on average we have to win the pot plus another 700 chips every time we flop a set (due to ICM effects we have to win slightly more chips than we would in a cash game). Effectively we have to stack our opponent every second time we hit the set. I think that this is very optimistic against all but the weakest tables. Therefore I think we need at least 2 or 3 opponents to make small pp playable for a standard raise. Anyone got any comments?

[aSsAsSiN2007]

good point here, with more callers of the raise it does get way more +ev because when u do spike the set there is likly to be some1 to pay you off , heads up the chances decrease thus imo naking it way less +ev to call for set value

[smbruin22]

i basically agree.

when you look at limit, there's always been a big emphasis on # of callers and set farming as you need some pot odds and some future bets too.

i think NL world has become lazy in assuming that you get a set and you'll stack your opponent. and even before that, you'll probably need an ace. so to set mine 44, you need A4x, anyone know the odds of that??

[dipstikdave]

dpends on the buyin. kevin's comment was made in a thread about the 16s. at this buyin and lower there are enough bad players that will come along after you to make this profitable. don't know about higher stakes tho.

[PattdownManiac]

I don't really set mine at 25/50.

[Galwegian]

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i think NL world has become lazy in assuming that you get a set and you'll stack your opponent. and even before that, you'll probably need an ace. so to set mine 44, you need A4x, anyone know the odds of that??

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probability of A4x flopping given that you have 44 is 1056/117600 i.e. just less than 1%

[plexiq]

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probability of A4x flopping given that you have 44 is 1056/117600 i.e. just less than 1%

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Did you also remove 1 dead Ace as well? Cause the ace wont help us unless the raiser holds one.

Anyways, this is definitely too pessimistic, because most players will be quite easily stackable if they hit TPGK - or they hold an overpair. (Buyin <=16, that is.)

In the higher buyins, assume most players will only open with Premium Hands early - so you will often be against AA/KK/QQ, where stacking them should be possible too i guess.