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Old 06-06-2007, 09:06 AM
bozzer bozzer is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: in with the 2p2 lingo
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Default Re: 50NL: I get taken to valuetown without a whimper

i have changed my mind in the course of this grunch, so read with caution:

I think this is fine. I *really* doubt you are ahead, but we have to look at this from an EV standpoint on the flop.
you are a small dog to a 20% opening range (i assumed he wasn't positionally aware) meaning you have odds to call. if you raise you have to commit at least $9 and you turn your hand into a bluff. in retrospect you know you only have to call $6 more, so a call is much better because it allows an aggressive opponent the chance to keep bluffing.

i think it is important to look at the totality of the different lines from the flop onwards. we can't just look at the pot odds on the F T and R and decide each time we have odds to call. I don't normally do this myself, so my analysis may well be wrong.

i would squeeze pf btw. even if UTG has a similar hand to you/AK you will still take it down with a cb loads.

edit: this all completely ignores the fact that 'we have a gutshot'
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