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Re: 50NL: I get taken to valuetown without a whimper
i have changed my mind in the course of this grunch, so read with caution:
I think this is fine. I *really* doubt you are ahead, but we have to look at this from an EV standpoint on the flop. you are a small dog to a 20% opening range (i assumed he wasn't positionally aware) meaning you have odds to call. if you raise you have to commit at least $9 and you turn your hand into a bluff. in retrospect you know you only have to call $6 more, so a call is much better because it allows an aggressive opponent the chance to keep bluffing. i think it is important to look at the totality of the different lines from the flop onwards. we can't just look at the pot odds on the F T and R and decide each time we have odds to call. I don't normally do this myself, so my analysis may well be wrong. i would squeeze pf btw. even if UTG has a similar hand to you/AK you will still take it down with a cb loads. edit: this all completely ignores the fact that 'we have a gutshot' |
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