DS, god, and probability: the real brandi story - Page 2

PairTheBoard · #11 06-05-2007, 11:06 AM

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Have I made a mistake above, or is this about the philosophy of frequency models?

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I don't think so. It's more about the logical problems of Foreknowledge vs Free Will. You have essentially modeled Free Will with the coin flip. The trouble is, the Devil is a supernatural being who can have foreknowledge of the outcome of the coin flip. So for those times the coin chooses both envelopes for you, the Devil has Forseen that and you end up losing out on the much more valuable prize in a futile attempt to get both prizes. It's a logical condundrum.

PairTheBoard

Alex-db · #12 06-05-2007, 12:06 PM

I think I avoid the awkard part of the problem since I never intuitively assume a genuine free will, I don't have any urge to think that people are like that, and I don't feel like I have any power to come to conclusions other than the ones I come to. Its like the bit of me that hears the internal commentary is just observing my brain making its way through life. But anyway...

I think of it in exactly the same way as if there was another person, lets call him John, and he has similar preferences to you in the result he is looking for.

Now assume John will choose, you can't talk to him, and the devil will guess his choice correctly. And you get the prize he chooses also

Now if you think John will choose each approximately x/y times, and the utility pricing makes you want a chance at the other prize, you also have the choice of flipping a coin to (50% of the time)override John's decision (but it is still of course dependent on what the Devil predicted he would have chosen.)

It makes sense to me anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Edit: PTB - from the premises, I didn't think he could know the coin result, only that he could perfectly predict human behavior: I don't think a coin flip is anything like human (free?!) will.

PLOlover · #13 06-05-2007, 04:41 PM

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David picks one envelope, and it's A. No question, end of discussion. He knows it's the right choice even though he hasn't been given the info we have because he's gone through the game theory in his head and has figured out that A and only A is the best choice. He wins 80% of the top prize at the series and buys himself a nice, brand new, deluxe pat on the back.

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what if he gets the watchtower? now since he's a reader he'll probably become a JW and on top of that no sex with brandi?

Besides, logically, the contents of the envelopes won't change, so there's no downside to picking both. He gets brandi in B, and if A has the money then it has the money.

But I think DS would pick both envelopes for a different reason.

born2ramble · #14 06-05-2007, 05:53 PM

Key words: "virtual certainty."
Maybe the Devil doesn't have as good a read on DS as he thinks!

I also think DS picks both, as, to him, there's no apparent downside. (the devil hasn't told DS about his predictions, right?) Even if it's just to see WHAT was in the damn thing (I bet DS is curious by nature.) The contents don't change! Pick both! Guaranteed by the big guy.

PLOlover · #15 06-06-2007, 12:25 AM

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Key words: "virtual certainty."
Maybe the Devil doesn't have as good a read on DS as he thinks!

I also think DS picks both, as, to him, there's no apparent downside. (the devil hasn't told DS about his predictions, right?) Even if it's just to see WHAT was in the damn thing (I bet DS is curious by nature.) The contents don't change! Pick both! Guaranteed by the big guy.

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in the problem the guy is supposed to know that the devil or whoever is basically a perfect predictor.

Justin A · #16 06-06-2007, 06:42 AM

This is about as confusing as time travel.

PLOlover · #17 06-06-2007, 06:09 PM

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This is about as confusing as time travel.

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I can't wait for the world series m.e. to know for sure.

Cue-Ball 66 · #18 06-06-2007, 06:51 PM

This was a so much better hypothetical before OP put his twist on it.

Piers · #19 06-06-2007, 08:14 PM

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in the problem the guy is supposed to know that the devil or whoever is basically a perfect predictor.

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How? Why? Don’t know about DS, but there is no way I am ever going to know this.

You can make it a condition of the problem that the devil is a perfect predictor, but there is no way you can make me know this. Maybe DS is more gullible/less stubborn, but I am not so sure.

I guess you could have made it a condition of the problem that both DS and I know the devil is telling the truth. Except I don’t and wouldn’t, but what about DS that’s the real question. Is it possible for DS to be certain the devil is telling the truth? If not, and you assume he is doesn’t your question with the quoted addition, loose logical coherence?

If DS knows the Devil is lying he would take A and B, if he knows the Devil is telling the truth he would take A. If he is not sure well, I guess it depends.

PLOlover · #20 06-06-2007, 08:24 PM

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How? Why? Don’t know about DS, but there is no way I am ever going to know this.

You can make it a condition of the problem that the devil is a perfect predictor, but there is no way you can make me know this. Maybe DS is more gullible/less stubborn, but I am not so sure.

I guess you could have made it a condition of the problem that both DS and I know the devil is telling the truth. Except I don’t and wouldn’t, but what about DS that’s the real question. Is it possible for DS to be certain the devil is telling the truth? If not, and you assume he is doesn’t your question with the quoted addition, loose logical coherence?

If DS knows the Devil is lying he would take A and B, if he knows the Devil is telling the truth he would take A. If he is not sure well, I guess it depends.

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I'm such a half asser I shoulda made it where DS knows/should have known that the way he gets the wsop money in A was by having to marry brandi! I really missed an opportunity there. then the problem would totally be in the spirit I was thinking of.