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#1
06-05-2007, 03:02 PM
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Flush Draw Plus Two Overs Facing All-in Bet
Final Table Bubble of 4.40/180
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com UTG (t32102) MP (t18771) Button (t13326) SB (t12304) Hero (t31875) Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls t1200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks. Flop: (t3300) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets t11029 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???? 
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#3
06-05-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Plus Two Overs Facing All-in Bet
easy fold
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#4
06-05-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Plus Two Overs Facing All-in Bet
I really think this depends on how important it is for you to get in the money. You could easily be a favorite here,highly doubt that villain has A high,I'm pretty sure he'd raise preflop w an A.My guess is that he hit the 8 or he's got a draw. It is such an overbet though,and these tourneys have a lot of donks in them,so it is sometimes hard to put them on hands,but I have a feeling that you are in a coinflip here. Of course,if he's got a K high flushdraw,you are in big trouble.
Having said that,I might still fold and wait for a better spot,ie one where I'm pushing. Folding is playing it safe I guess.
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#5
06-05-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Plus Two Overs Facing All-in Bet
yeah, fold.
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#6
06-05-2007, 04:51 PM
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Re: Flush Draw Plus Two Overs Facing All-in Bet
With these pot odds you only need to win this more than about 43% for it to be +cEV.
Hands you are worse than 43% against: QQ-AA any set 2 pair any pair with Q kicker Ax or Kx diamonds Hands you are better than 43% against: all other pairs (pair with 9 kicker is about neutral) A high worse flush draws gut shots bluffs I can't imagine anyone playing QQ-AA, a set, or 2 pair this way. I think there are lots of people who will push this flop with a pair or any flush draw. Running in to a better flush draw or a pair with a Q kicker would be very unlucky. Considering that the payouts in these are weighted towards the top 3 spots, I think that this is not an easy fold and is probably a marginal call. If you win you have a nice stack going in to the FT, if you lose you are still competitive. A good read on SB could swing this either way.
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