99 on the button in a 4/180

[venz]

Sup guys?
This is a 4/180 down to about 65 players.
Question: lay it down or jammy jam?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

MP3 (t3208)
CO (t4380)
Hero (t3865)
SB (t2115)
BB (t3423)
UTG (t1085)
UTG+1 (t1807)
MP1 (t1557)
MP2 (t5390)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls t150, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t600</font>,

[markbris]

Jam it jam it jam it.

[All_In_Olly]

If CO is very tight, I may fold, but readless with 65 left I shove.

[dudeoflife]

Yeah def have to shove, With the limper co may be raising with hands like AJ KQ to isoalate all of which he may fold or you'll have a coin flip. I'd actually be a lot more scared of a raise to 450 then id prob just call and see what happens on the flop.

[Nogatsira]

Depends on CO range, but with no reads, this is a jam.

[mxp2004]

I've been thinking about this situation since it was posted, and I disagree with what seems to be consensus. I'm not sure why OP's options should be limited to all-in or fold. I think calling is a viable option here, too, and it is the one that I would prefer if I did not have any reads on the CO. Here's why.

First, assuming that the CO is a reasonable player -- and that's what you have to assume with no reads -- there are virtually no hands he could have where Hero is way ahead. Would a typical player make this move holding a pocket pair less than 99? IMHO, the answer is "no." So most of the times that Hero pushes here the Hero is either way behind himself or a slight favorite to unpaired overcards in the CO's hand.

Second, the principal reason for pushing is that middle pairs can be difficult to play after the flop. Thus, the push is intended to take advantage of fold equity and to end the hand now. But how much fold equity does a push really have in this situation? How often can you count on the typical player in a 4/180 folding any better hands? How many of us who play at this level regularly would think that the CO would fold TT or better in this spot preflop? I don't think it's enough to jeopardize your whole stack at this stage of the game.

That leads to my next point. If Hero just calls, he has 3265 left behind and an M of over 14. Thus, even if he is forced to fold on the flop, Hero has a lot of ammunition left to pick a better spot and rebuild.

Plus, it has to be recalled that Hero has position in this hand. If Hero calls and everyone folds but the CO, there will be 1575 in the pot, an amount that is approximately half of both players' remaining stacks.

To me that means that it takes the continuation bet out of the CO's arsenal. Assuming that the CO has air after the flop (with a hand like AK, AQ, or KQ), what amount could he bet that would not commit the rest of his stack? There is no amount that is small enough not to commit him to the rest of the hand or large enough to deny Hero the odds to call. Thus, the CO now has two moves: all-in or check. With air, many reasonable players will check in this spot rather than commit the rest of their stack on a pure bluff. That show of weakness opens the door for Hero to pull the trigger.

Similarly, let's say that the CO does not have complete air, but has hand like JJ or TT. Isn't he sort of hamstrung if the flop comes out Ace or King (and maybe even Queen) high when he knows that you've shown preflop strength and still have to act? Again, CO is either forced to commit the rest of his stack blind before finding out if you have the overcard, or he has to check, once again opening the door for Hero.

It seems to me that, unlike preflop, the combination of pot size, relative stacks, and position gives the Hero a lot more fold equity to maneuver after the flop than before it.

There are certainly a bunch of factors and circumstances where I would advocate that the Hero push preflop with 99 after facing only one late position raiser. This post is already getting too long to list the considerations that would cause me to play this same hand differently. But if we start with the premise of OP's thread -- that you are facing a reasonable, typical player in the CO with no reads -- then I think that there is a lot of merit to just calling and relying on your ability to play well after the flop.