QQ in 3bet pot overpair, but he donks into me twice? (NL50-150 BB)

[CalledDownLight]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($18.35)
Hero ($78.05)
SB ($48.75)
BB ($23.30)
UTG ($34.40)
UTG+1 ($48.75)
MP1 ($72.55)
MP2 ($60.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($28.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $27.5</font>, Hero ???

I don't think raising the flop is an option. This maybe be a standard fold, but I just want to check up. Seems like only AA and JJ would 2 barrel like this. Villian is standard TAG.

[NL__Fool]

I fold to his turn bet

[chicken10der]

[MarcusT]

I would have a tough time folding here...

[Das Budrick]

why is raising the flop a bad idea here?

[Johnes Benjamin]

yeah, I can't see doing anything but folding without a strong read telling you otherwise. That said, I too would like to know your thoughts on raising the flop.

[Das Budrick]

bump because I'd like to know why we shouldn't raising this flop

[Vegetarian]

There is no real reason to raise the flop.

[Teddie]

If hero had Aces/K's should he be raising the flop?

[illini43]

I guess in this spot with QQ, raising the flop provides Hero with these possibilities:

1) MP1 folds and Hero takes down the pot.

2) MP1 calls Hero's raise and
a) bets the turn, which leaves Hero with a tough decision or
b) checks the turn allowing Hero to fire again or check behind.

3) MP1 re-raises all-in and Hero is faced with a tough decision.

By calling, Hero hides the strength of his hand and gets to see what MP1 does on the turn (check if whiffed AK, etc.)

MP1's range has to be pretty small if he raised, then called a 3-bet OOP. I would think a standard TAG would call with JJ-AA and AKs unless Hero has been playing loose.

QQ is about a 3:1 underdog to that range (only ahead of AKs).

So it seems like Hero is only ahead a small amount of the time and behind most of the time against a TAG.

If a normal TAG does not have a hand here, he will usually check/fold the turn (unless he has a history of 2-barreling), so Hero would have a chance to pick up the pot if he called the flop and bet the turn if checked too. If Hero raises the flop, all worse hands are folding and all better hands are pushing, leaving Hero pot committed to a hand he is probably drawing very slim in.

I like calling the flop and seeing what MP1 does on the turn. If he had checked, I would have fired a decent sized bet (~$15) to try and pick up the pot. Raising the flop leaves Hero very vulnerable to a RR from MP1.

If Hero had AA, raising the flop seems fine because he would be a 3:1 favorite against MP1's range. KK is a little tougher being about 50:50 against MP1's range in this situation.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]