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I'm reluctant to respond in this thread but the other threads are so incoherent I can't even tell what the argument is about.
If the question is what I think it is Beavis68 seems to be on the right track though his argument is a little informal. Can I assume the game is this: I may choose heads or tails using whatever strategy I feel like. You will flip a coin where P(heads) =p and P(tails)=1-p. I win k dollars if I guess the same as the coin flip and I loose c dollars if I guess the opposite. One of these outcomes will happen almost surly. Is that the game? ok whats the question? is this the question: you have a choice between playing two games, A and B. game A: as above k=11, c=10, p=0.5. you play the game. game B: as above k=12, c=10, p is fixed and unknown and an element of [0,1]. you play the game. which game has a higher expected value if you use the optimal strategy for each one? edit: made it a bit more clear |
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