I normally just call here

[josh_x]

does everyone agree that the best turn play depends predominantly on what he does with draws if we check? anyone have any estimation on how often he has to bet his draws for checking to be superior to betting? I really have no idea, and i think some sort of rough answer to this would be very beneficial, at least to my game.

Also, if he pushes the river after i make it 35, what are we doing? We will be getting ~2.56:1, meaning we have to win >28% of the time, to save you the counting.

[getITGOTit]

based on your description of him as a station, i would say he checks draws nearly always (stations don't bet usually w/o made hand) if he pushes the river to your CR, you gotta fold. inducing a bluff by checking river is one thing, a terrible station reading ur CR as thin value and coming over the top w/nothing forcing a fold? not very likely (<10%)

[josh_x]

[ QUOTE ]
based on your description of him as a station, i would say he checks draws nearly always (stations don't bet usually w/o made hand) if he pushes the river to your CR, you gotta fold. inducing a bluff by checking river is one thing, a terrible station reading ur CR as thin value and coming over the top w/nothing forcing a fold? not very likely (<10%)

[/ QUOTE ]

i appreciate the comment, but i didn't really say he was a station. He was betting/raising as much as an average player, but given his super loose range this means that he is doing some aggressive things with weak hands. WRT the river, if he pushes the river with a hand worse than mine, it won't be because he's putting me on a thin value raise, but because he is thinking "wtf is going on, umm i push!". (i certainly don't mean to advocate a call of a push btw)

[getITGOTit]

guess ill just push...lol..i agree with that description--
this is probably what this type of guy thinks a lot of the time when the pot is big and hes confused on the river

[donkmagic]

i think checkraising the river is really really bad if you give him a ton of 2 pair combos in his range. even retards generally can fold like 3rd pair when they get check raised on the river. i like betting the turn and check-calling the river ALOT more than this line.

[Montezuma21]

[ QUOTE ]
does everyone agree that the best turn play depends predominantly on what he does with draws if we check? anyone have any estimation on how often he has to bet his draws for checking to be superior to betting? I really have no idea, and i think some sort of rough answer to this would be very beneficial, at least to my game.


[/ QUOTE ]

not necessarily. how villain plays the turn is important (if he's the kind to bet-call any turn with a FD or an OESD with any draw then this might be the best line), but there are other factors to consider.



stack sizes. the deeper the stacks, the more bet-fold becomes a reasonable option on the turn (as you don't want to commit yourself to TPTK by C-Ring if effective stacks are very large, especially if villain's pushing range includes both hands you beat and hands that beat you.)

You must also consider his tendencies on the turn with marginal made hands such as QJ and KT here. does he check or bet the turn with these hands? Is he likely to call another street or two if you bet? what's the best way for you to get value against such hands? how likely is it he has these hands?


there are other factors to consider, such as villain's tendencies on the river: (does he always bluff big when checked to him on the river(in which case Bet turn, C-C RIV becomes a very profitable line here), flop texture (how narrowly can we define villain's hand as either a drawing hand or a made hand? + how many draws are out--> are we sure we won't get bluffed off the best hand on the river if one of several possible draws get there)?

There are other factors to consider but these are probably the most important ones to be thinking about. they're not listed in order of importance, btw.