NL400 - T9s - Decision on the Turn

[oober]

I could be wrong, but I would think OOP a "good regular" will have a inkling all be it small, you might think exactly that and C/C on river thus not giving you the good implied. Now a break even player or worse, you know he would, but flushes have tendencies to shut pots down from good regulars, No? I think a good regular just doesnt pay off enough over all.

But hey what do I know, you just kicked my arse. LOL

[Thrahl]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong, but I would think OOP a "good regular" will have a inkling all be it small, you might think exactly that and C/C on river thus not giving you the good implied. Now a break even player or worse, you know he would, but flushes have tendencies to shut pots down from good regulars, No? I think a good regular just doesnt pay off enough over all.

But hey what do I know, you just kicked my arse. LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain checks the river it doesn't mean he isn't calling a big bet here. If I'm hero and I hit one of my outs I'm shoving the river regardless of what villain does.
Heroes hand will look a LOT like busted diamonds.

[oober]

The str8 are the only outs that have full implied value IMO. I'm, just saying the flush wont always be paid off. Therefore I fold on turn.

[zydes]

Why are you fishing preflopp and flopp?

[maltaille]

Here's an out of the box thought: what about a semi-bluff raise (probably a push given stack sizes, though it's a large raise - regardless, any raise here is likely to end up with you all-in on the river) here?

Pros: We can definitely fold out a lot of hands that beat us here - one pair hands like AA/AK/KQ, and maybe even KJ (though this is debatable as KJ or JJ is what we'd be representing). There's nothing we fold that we're beating - except perhaps a very aggressively played Adxd, but that's unlikely for a 23/10.
Cons: Our strong draws are well-hidden, which increases their implied odds, so why would we get it in before we hit? We also lose a bluff opportunity if a diamond comes, which might be worth a couple of outs to us. Additionally, we have to assume he doesn't think much of our play, as pretty much anything that's ahead should just call here, so only a weaker player is going to raise at all.

If we put him on:
- a one pair type hand (AA/AK/KQ) 40% of the time
- a two-pair hand (KJ) hand 30% of the time
- a one pair plus draw (AcKc/KcQc/AdJd) hand 15% of the time
- a set (KK/JJ) 10% of the time
- and air (incl Adxd) 5% of the time

then we can assume he might fold almost all of his one pair hands, perhaps half his two pair hands, and air, that's say 55% of the time. If he doesn't fold, we still have ~10 outs (more in rare cases where he doesn't fold his one pair hands), and will win ~21% of the time.

So, a quick and dirty EV calc says:
- 55% of the time we win $170 (the existing pot)
- 10% of the time (that's 21% of the remaining 45%) we win $794
- 35% of the time we lose $357

for a total EV of $43.

If we call, assuming he will call a river push (which is pretty much just a pot bet) 100% of the time (and that we win the pot 100% of the time) and we will fold if we don't hit:

- 21% of the time we win $794
- 79% of the time we lose $90

for a total EV of $96.

OK, calling seems more +EV here.

If, though, we assume he is only calling a river push 50% of the time, that changes to:

- 11% of the time we win $794 (the pot if he calls our river bet)
- 11% of the time we win $260 (the pot if he doesn't call our river bet)
- 78% of the time we lose $90 (the cost of calling)

for a total EV of $46 - almost identical to the semi-bluff raise EV.

The EV of the raise increases if:
- we can generate the same result with a smaller raise (so having a smaller stack makes this a more +EV situation for us)
- he will fold more often (even a small difference in his folding frequency will make a big difference in EV - if he folds 60% of the time, our EV goes up to $57. So, if he has a one-pair hand 50% of the time, or he's weak enough to fold a two-pair hand all the time, it's much more worthwhile).

Equally, our EV on the call stays higher if:
- we can get him to call our river bet all the time
- we can successfully bluff if a diamond falls
- he's going to call our raise more often, whether it's because he's tilting or because we've misjudged how often he has a set here

The corollary of both calling and raising having a positive EV is that folding, which by definition cannot have a positive EV, is the worst option here.

And of course, there's always shania to think of - everyone knows you put your chips in the middle without a made hand now, so you'll get called more often when you do have a hand. Ironically, the more you do this, the harder it is to get a fold here, so the less profitable a play it becomes.

FYI, Fimbulwinter has a fantastic post about this sort of thing from a while back: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=3069765