#1
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NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
not much of a read, but I feel reasonably strong that he is on some midpair hand here, pull the trigger?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com MP1 ($100.40) MP2 ($103.10) MP3 ($60.05) CO ($89) Hero ($107.50) SB ($124.10) BB ($152.75) UTG ($40.65) UTG+1 ($60.60) Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $7. Flop: ($21.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $15</font>, Hero |
#2
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
readless i'd say its 50/50 or worse. i don't try this readless when they bet so much of the pot on the flop
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#3
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
I only like this if you have a read that he can get away from an overpair on a flop of unders. Otherwise I dont like it. Especially on this board.
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#4
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
dbitel theorem sir (nobody fold overpairs). You can always call and rep a paint/club turn?
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#5
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
I don't like it, especially if he knows you 3-bet light.
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#6
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
[ QUOTE ]
dbitel theorem sir (nobody fold overpairs). You can always call and rep a paint/club turn? [/ QUOTE ] This is interesting. I'm not sure if this math adds up, but I've given it a shot. If we assume on average of the 18 cards dealt, that over time they even out 25% for each suit, we can assume 4.5 cards of each suit that end up 'dead'. In other words, if we played 1 million hands, the average results would mean even number of suited cards dealt as starting hands. So if we correctly assume together 9 collective diamond/club cards either dead or in play on board or in hero's hand, that leaves 26-9 = 17 diamond/club cards remaining. Add the 4 remaining non club A/K outs and there are (again on average) 21 cards that come on the turn that help us IF we can properly rep a club draw. If we turn a diamond, we've given ourselves extra outs with the nut flush. So 21 out of 47 cards = .447, close to half the cards in the deck now helping us. This is 2.2 to 1 odds and the pot is laying at 2.4 to 1 odds. We'd have to be fairly certain the villain would give respect to the draw, so I think it would work best against a tight/passive player than anything else. Seems like a good line if you've seen the villain get drawn out on recently. |
#7
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
Hmmm...this math is messed up because the 3 board cards are counted extra in the out cards, so it's actually lower. I'll have to think about this a bit more.
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#8
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
Readless I think it's a terrible idea to raise here and try to get JJ/TT to fold.
I think calling is a better option than raising, because you will often get two free cards if you call. Folding is safest of course. |
#9
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
I hate these situations so much. I feel that leading into a 3bet is very often a hand they're willing to felt for 100 or less BBs, correctly or not. I haven't experimented with a push in these spots enough to suggest one here or not, though.
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#10
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Re: NL100 He has JJ can I get him off it?
Fold flop.
The potential club draw out there will make him more likely to call a flop raise with the overpair. |
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