10K FPP WSOP Q'er TT vs raise

[LSgambler]

I think we are little to short for a call and it's going to be tough to play TT on most flops with our stack size. Folding is very weak and given that villian raised for the 3rd time in 13 hands no way I would fold this. Shoving clearly seems best to me. shove>>>>>>>>>>>& gt;>call>>>>>>>fold

[Jolle]

I think shoving is bad. If we get called, the best we can hope for is a flip vs AK. The fact that this is the third time villain raises in 13 hand doesn't mean that much. 13 hand is too little to conclude anything imo (well, if he'd been raising 11 of those 13 hands maybe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]), and even LAGs are pretty tight from UTG+1.

I don't see calling as a good option either. We don't have the odds to try and hit a set, so we have to get some value from flops without a ten. This will be very difficult. The possible scenario's:
1) Overcards flop and we fold to his c-bet.
2) No overcards flop. We shove over his c-bet, he calls with an overpair and wins our stack.
3) No overcards flop. We shove over his c-bet, he folds his overcards.

To win chips postflop, scenario #3 has to compensate for the losses from scenario #1 and #2. There's just not enough value there.

Calling preflop has another problem. Each of the CO, SB and BB have a good stack size to try a squeeze. And if one of them pushes and UTG+1 folds, can we call that? I don't think so.

This only leaves folding. This looks weak with TT (and it is of course), but still the best option I think.

[Ferdinand Peelen]

I agree with Jolle, top 9 prizes are the same so we're not looking to win, survival is our main goal. pushing means there's at least a 40% chance of being knocked out (probably more), of course this is offset with the possibility of doubling up (or slight chance of tripling up) but also chance of only getting blinds + raise.

At this stage I don't think hero's M is low enough to risk putting us out of the race for a seat, I would shove if there had been no raise but such an early raise does indicate some sort of a starting hand. I hope I would have the presence of mind to fold here.

Even if I'm up against AJ and slightly ahead it's just not worth it yet. I should theoretically get a better starting hand sometime in the next 2 orbits.

[ryanghall]

In my opinion, Eagles nailed it (as usual)

Calling seems to be the best option. If overs flop and someone pushes, you just fold it obviously.

I buggared up the hand, pushing, and I lost to AA

Ryan

[coatsie]

i think somethings missing. where did he raise last 2? open from late then i would fold. open mix then i would push.

[sbj]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Jolle, top 9 prizes are the same so we're not looking to win, survival is our main goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 115 people left, not 15.
And you have a smallish stack.
TT is too srong a hand to fold.

I disagree with the artguments to merely call rather than push but I concede that I could be wrong there. But I folding with TT against a very aggressive (albeit with a tiny sample size) opening raiser seems very wrong IMHO.

[bonsaltron]

Assuming we all agree TT is too strong to fold:

M ~ 9 ... before decision

M ~ 7 ... if called, with pot at just about 4 M (5150).

Bottom line: IMO, a premium TT holding facing an agressive opening villain, whereas a call will have less than a 2:1 pot-to-stack ratio with M's under as short a leash as <10, is much more profitable if you shove. Especially if you're still miles away from the FT and you're Q is 11/16. Your poker life is too short to do anything but shove here.

- Gpro

[stillnotking]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with Jolle, top 9 prizes are the same so we're not looking to win, survival is our main goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 115 people left, not 15.
And you have a smallish stack.
TT is too srong a hand to fold.

I disagree with the artguments to merely call rather than push but I concede that I could be wrong there. But I folding with TT against a very aggressive (albeit with a tiny sample size) opening raiser seems very wrong IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

In satellite tournaments the chip EV/$EV equity distortion is WAY more pronounced than in standard structured-payout events. Granted with 115 people left you are a long way out of the money, but given that (I think) everyone agrees this is a somewhat marginal decision, I think the structure should incline Hero toward calling or folding rather than pushing. In a graduated-payout tournament I would push.

Also I think most people are underestimating Villain's range. UTG+1 raisers almost always show up with a hand, and if he really is LAGgy it actually argues against pushing, because he will be more likely to call with AQ/AJ/KQ type hands that Hero really wants him to fold. LAGs know they have to stand up to this kind of play. (Of course that also means Hero might get called by 66-99, but Villain is more likely to be unpaired than paired.)

I personally would have no problem folding here. TT is not a fantastic hand, an overbet shove gives opponents too much information and enables them to play perfectly -- not just the initial raiser but the people behind also -- and the odds are not really there to call, especially if Villain is going to c-bet any flop. I would shove QQ+ or AK, probably call with JJ but fold if overcards flopped, and probably fold anything else. Maybe I'm a nit, but I do very well in satellites.