IFL MMA Friday

[svj]

Since I've been doing quite well in MMA lately, I figured I'd throw in my 2 cents on the IFL fights where I see good value tonight.


Ryan Schultz +126 / Savant Young

Young has had a couple of spectacular (but not set-up) knockouts recently, which I believe is greatly increasing his perceived value here.

Schultz is currently a wrestler/boxer with Team Quest, a very cerebral camp. This is not the kind of camp that comes in without a game plan. Expect Schultz to set up takedowns straight away.


Matt Horwich -251 / Kazuhiro Hamanaka

Horwich hasn't been stopped by anyone but Jamal Patterson (twice) in almost 3 years.

The only person that's won ANY fight that Hamanaka has beat in the last 3 years is Cabbage. Ooooo. Hamanaka is a bundle of energy, but it doesn't seem to work in his favor. His fights wrap up pretty quickly. Maybe he's learned to keep his head down while shooting, but I doubt it.


Brad Blackburn +256 / Jay Heiron (Double Unit)

Shared opponent, Chris Wilson: Quest fighter. Blackburn won by unanimous decision, Heiron lost unanimous. Both fights happened within 2 months of each other. This would indicate even odds, or if anything, an advantage for Blackburn.


Shad Lierley +321 over Chris Horodecki (Double Unit)

Horodecki is the IFL's Golden Boy. They shove him down the spectator's throats every chance they get, which I believe creates good value by fading him. His lack of submission defence and top ground game was exposed by Chris Palaszweski, a fight he won by split decision (aka. draw), but was only able to get to that decision by backing away and falling through the ropes (intentionally leaving the ring) to break a guillotine choke that he didn't know how to break otherwise.

Lierley, while inexperienced, was a top Div III (yeah, yeah, I know) wrestler, also trained in BJJ and kickboxing.

As we've been shown repeatedly in UFC and Pride, multi-skilled fighters have a large, large advantage over one trick ponies.
I look for Lierley to lay-and-pray his way to a victory. Although it will have to be a doozy, because the judges are firmly in Horodecki's camp.

Good luck, all!

[JasonK]

[ QUOTE ]

Brad Blackburn +256 / Jay Heiron (Double Unit)

Shared opponent, Chris Wilson: Quest fighter. Blackburn won by unanimous decision, Heiron lost unanimous. Both fights happened within 2 months of each other. This would indicate even odds, or if anything, an advantage for Blackburn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fedor beat Cro Cop by decision. Gonzaga beat Cro Cop by KO. Fedor vs Gonzaga even money, or advantage Gonzaga?

[svj]

I would think the chances of Gonzaga pulling it off are certainly better than the 4-5:1 dog status that he'd be given.

Even money? Dunno, but you can't really use CroCop to determine it. They both beat him without needing a lucky shot, and without being in serious danger. All that means (to me) is that they're both better than Crocop.

I don't see Blackburn being head and shoulders over Heiron. I'm saying that pulling a decision (more to the point, not winning or losing a stoppage) they're essentially the same level of fighter, and +251 is a great value on a fighter on those terms.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Matt Horwich -251 / Kazuhiro Hamanaka

Horwich hasn't been stopped by anyone but Jamal Patterson (twice) in almost 3 years.

The only person that's won ANY fight that Hamanaka has beat in the last 3 years is Cabbage. Ooooo. Hamanaka is a bundle of energy, but it doesn't seem to work in his favor. His fights wrap up pretty quickly. Maybe he's learned to keep his head down while shooting, but I doubt it

[/ QUOTE ]

I am on Hamanaka simply because I got a very favorable line. I know absolutely zero about him but I will be cheering for him [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[svj]

Ryan Schultz +126 WIN
Matt Horwich -251 WIN
Shad Lierley +321 x2 LOSS
Brad Blackburn +256 x2 WIN

Total +3.37 units.


Just you wait... Gonzaga is coming... mu-hahahaha! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
Ryan Schultz +126 WIN
Matt Horwich -251 WIN
Shad Lierley +321 x2 LOSS
Brad Blackburn +256 x2 WIN

Total +3.37 units.


Just you wait... Gonzaga is coming... mu-hahahaha! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I had:
Hamanaka +250 L
Schoenauer +300 W
Blackburn +250 W
+2.25 units (I had half unit bets on each)

I was laughing watching the online play-by-play on the Hamanaka fight. You never want to read this about your fighter - "first he stumbles. Then he crumbles"

[svj]

"Hamanaka is a bundle of energy, but it doesn't seem to work in his favor. His fights wrap up pretty quickly."

Sometimes enthusiasm is a good thing.

Sometimes not.


Can I ask what you saw in Schoenauer that warranted a bet in your eyes?

I had seen 2 of his fights, and he didn't look good at all to me. I had considered betting on Goes blind, but I hadn't seen any of his fights (never a good policy, IMO).

[Utah]

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Can I ask what you saw in Schoenauer that warranted a bet in your eyes?

[/ QUOTE ]
Absolutely nothing and I had never even heard his name before. I was simply playing the soft side of an arb (ie. I could have played it for a guaranteed profit but instead I only played the side that was off).