$10NL MTT - Full Contact Poker

[WellAdjusted06]

Level 6 - 100/200 half way through the field (70 seats start)
9 handed
Starting Stack: t2000
Hero: t5620 - MP2 - TAG. Shown KK,QQ,1010,AK,AQ only so far
Villain: t5400 - SB - Competent
Chip Lead: t13K-ish

I've been able to steel blinds about 1x every 2 orbits without showing because I've only seen 5 flops and won with the above 5 hands. Two hands prior I knocked out 2 small stacks with QQ and the table reloaded to 9 players. Villain sees a lot more flops but doesn't get crazy post flop. I haven't seen him make a move at this point.

3 folds, Hero with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raises to t500 (t600 usually steals), 3 folds, SB calls. Pot = t1200.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero: open for t900

Villain: raises to t1800

Hero?

[LSgambler]

Shove. There are to many draws to just flat call. Obv you can't fold.

[hERESY]

d00d shove to get all the money in--what else are you doing???!

[WellAdjusted06]

OK. I must just be result orienting again. I put him on AA,QQ,JJ,1010,AK and last but not least, AQ.

The reason I hesitated is the min raise. Ax[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would smooth call. JJ,1010 would likely shove. QQ might call. But AQ would min raise and hope I had a piece of the flop for real. I bet t900 on the flop so as not to rep a c-bet, i.e. I hit my hand, yet he min raised begging for a call/shove. I smelled the AQ but shoved anyway. I just wondered if there's anyone who could have gotten away from the hand....

[Dunkman]

This is retarded. Yeah you should flop top set and fold to a minraise. Let me show you some math really quick...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.394% 38.99% 00.40% 386 4.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 60.606% 60.20% 00.40% 596 4.00 { AdQh }

Ok, so the pot is 1200 going to the flop, you bet 900 (2100) and he minraises to 1800 (3900). He has 3100 left. So if you shove, you're betting 4k to win the 3900 in the pot, and the 3100 he has left. So, you're shoving 4k to try and win 7k. Shoving is better than folding even if HE FLIPPED THE AQ FACE UP. Now obviously if he actually flipped it up you'd probably just want to call, but folding would be a worse decision than pushing.

Obviously, there's no way to know that he absolutely has AQ here (there are many hands in his range,) this is just a BBV post, but I did want to point out just how insane thinking about folding is in this spot.

[WellAdjusted06]

Point taken. Thank you.