Toy Game Question

[mwette]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would think this is a very simple game. Since
SB gets no reads whatsoever, his decision should
be based purely on EV w/ 2 players: if > 50% raise,
if < 50% fold. SB should know exactly what BB will
do, if BB's strategy is based this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you missed that SB can call.

[/ QUOTE ]

But he gets no reads from BB. So his decision is
based purely on his pocket cards.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
In closing, I find it surprising that the only hands the BB holds in which he's hoping the SB raises are:
- AA to QQ
- AKs to AJs
- AKo to AJo

way counter-intutive....

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure about that. BB hopes the SB raises if he's got any hand with more than 50% equity against the range of hands that SB raises with. So if you plug the raising range of SB into pokerstove, then look for more than .5 equity, you should get the range that wants a raise.

I get 44+ A4o+ A2s+ KTo+ K9s+ QJs.

[Red_Diamond]

Rule of thumb, getting 2-1 on the the call vs any RANDOM hand, allows one to call with EVERYTHING except for 23o & 24o. Since we are getting 3-1 one (not 2-1), I'd open up to calling with EVERYTHING.

Of course, if your opponent starts getting selective on his raises that can muddle things a bit, I'll have to do some more thinking on this myself.

[FatTony]

Hubris,

I agree with what you say. I also agree with my point. Trying to reconcile the two has made me lose sleep last night (yes, I take these things WAY too seriously, but I love these math / logic challenges, nerd that I am).

I think I have the answer. At the risk of splitting hairs – you are answering a different question, and I probably could have improved the wording of my question:

“3) What are all the hands the BB can hold where he hopes the SB raises?”

Basically, the definition of this game is such that the SB’s actions are predetermined – I’ve shown that the SB maximizes his EV by raising with a specific set of hands (hereafter referred to as a “raising hand”), and calling with all others. My question (what I intended to ask) is thus:
What is the set of hands that the BB holds where his EV is higher if the SB holds a raising hand rather than holding a calling hand.

You have shown that, if the BB holds, say 44, then the BB hopes the SB raises with a “raising hand” (i.e., hands the SB auto-raises with) rather than calling with a “raising hand”. This is correct, but it is not the question I intended to ask (with apologies).

To beat a dead horse, you answered:
If the SB has a “raising hand”, what hands does the BB hold where his EV is higher is the SB actually raises instead of just calling.

I answered the question:
What hands does the BB hold where his EV is higher if the SB holds a “raising hand” (and raises) rather than having a “calling hand” (and calling).

I think this clears it up.

[FatTony]

Found an error in my analysis, and have corrected.

The corrected answers are:
1) Raise
2) TT
3) AA-TT, AKs-A9s, AKo-ATo

The SB raising hands are unchanged.
This seems (at least to me) to be more reasonable.

[lurkling]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.593% 32.23% 01.36% 30849288180 1303871124.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J6s+, T7s+, 98s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 66.407% 65.04% 01.36% 62257338564 1303871124.00 { TT+, A9s+, ATo+ }


your saying you want to be a 2-1 favorite when youre GETTING 3-1? i think this is wrong.

you will be seeing all 5 cards because the action is only from the sb and BB preflop correct?

if this is true than there are plenty of hands you will be breaking even with so we def shouldnt fold them. even creed's range runs about 58% in stove. but were also assuming we KNOW what SB is raising with. i think if were consistantly seeing all 5 cards theres no advantage in play then math will play out as it should. thats why youre taking and laying odds in every bet you make.

so in essence isnt calling with the same range hes raising with correct when were getting 3-1 for 5?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 47.79% 02.21% 315655748040 14618584392.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J6s+, T7s+, 98s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J8o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 50.000% 47.79% 02.21% 315655748040 14618584392.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J6s+, T7s+, 98s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J8o+, T9o }

we are 'hoping' sb will raising because we will be getting 3-1 on a call on an even money shot. 2-1 is the break even point, 3-1 arent we profiting?

[FatTony]

You're missing the point. Think of it this way - you hold JJ in the BB. You know what the SB raises with, and what he calls with. WHat is your EV if he holds a calling hand and calls? What is your EV if he holds a raising hand and raises? So now, which do you prefer? Now do the same for all other hands that you could hold. With which hands is it your preference that the SB holds a raising hand and raises?