Weak-tight AA fold even for large stack?

[ddagt]

My first post, so please forgive me for any mistakes. My fold has been bothering me, so want to see if any justification for folding...

Live No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
8 players

My read of villain: He played a lot of flops, would typically fold if didn't hit. He was a regular at the casino and seemed good at reading hands. He knew I was very tight (I usually play $2-$10 spread at a different casino), and had only seen me show down good hands.

3 hands of interest against him-
A few hours previous to this hand, he was all-in before river, must have missed his draw, and left to get more money without showing his hand even before I tabled my 99.

An hour previous to this hand, I raised in late position, he called with KJ, and with flop Jxx he only check-called my bet on flop, check-called on turn, I gave up (10 5) on river. I didn't feel he was going for check-raise on river, just felt he was calling any bet by me on river.

30 minutes previous to this hand, I raised late position with QQ, got 1 caller, he folded, my QQ held up and he commented he folded before flop because I got 1 caller but would have beat me on river. At this point I was thinking what do I have to do to beat him in a pot. Anyway, on to hand in question.

Effective Stack sizes: ~$400 (200 BB)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
A couple of callers, Villain(UTG+4) calls, Hero raises to $8, folded to UTG+3 who calls, Villain calls.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]($29, 3 players)
UTG+3 checks, Villain checks, Hero bets $20, UTG+3 folds, Villain raises to $50, Hero calls.

At this point I didn't put him on an over-pair as I thought he would have raised preflop. I didn't think he was just putting me to the test with garbage based on previous play. I didn't think he had a flush-draw either. With 99 I thought he would have just called, so I put him on 32/34/35 suited. I couldn't fold yet, but didn't have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], so I just called to see if he would bet the turn.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]($129, 2 players)
Villain bets $75, Hero folds.

I put him on a very stong hand (if he was just making a move I didn't think he would bet again after I called), and didn't want to play for 200BB with just 1 (non-community) pair.

For the next half-hour I was kicking myself for folding, then during drive home talked myself into it being a not-terrible laydown, but am thinking it was too weak now.

So what does everything think he had (he did tell me later), and was it the worst laydown in the history of poker? Was I thinking too much about how he thought I played, and should have just played my cards?

Thanks.

[Dr_Doctr]

Kind of a tough spot. The range you assign him is very thin but given your read I'm not sure there's anything else he could have but a 3 either. With an overpair he'd probably 3-bet preflop. Looks like either a stone bluff or you're almost drawing dead. I don't hate folding this given your read and image. If Villian is tricky or unknown I might call turn and see what he does on river.

[w33ktight]

bad fold! i would get AI on this flop
and raise preflop!

[loosbastard]

Raise more PF.

As played...I'm not sure if I'm willing to felt here, but I'm definitely not folding for just one more bet. I probably call turn and fold to a large river bet if I don't improve.

[ddagt]

I actually did raise preflop, perhaps not enough. Was not expecting a re-raise, as no-one had limp/re-raised all night, but would have loved it!

What range of hands do people think he could have here?

[early325]

in a casino you need to raise this to like $15 at least PF, and get it in on the flop.

[johnnyrocket]

awful fold, he isnt pushing you out with a boat here, he is either bullying or has a slightly lower PP than you. This is a super easy push, i might just call the flop to let him bet the turn, then i'd push all in and crush the fish

FOLDING IS AWFUL HERE

[Mike MacIntosh]

I know you would like to focus on post-flop hand reading, strategy, etc. However your real blunder is pre-flop. Raising it to $8 after 1, 2, or 3 limpers is unacceptable in a live 1/2 game. You are giving them great immediate pot odds to chase with their trash, which increases the likely hood that there will be a relatively small multi way pot (which is the last thing you want). In a live 1/2 game after three limpers, I would make it somewhere between $18 - $24.

Your opponent c/r you in a multi way pot on a paired board. Given your read, you behind most of the time here.

[ddagt]

Thanks for the responses. He did in fact have a slightly lower pp - KK. I should have gotten his entire stack.

[Nielsio]

Raise to $25 preflop and after that you can easily get it in on the flop.