NL200: AK pre-flop decision

[Stonewalled]

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doesn't the original raiser still being left to act decrease the likelyhood that the villian is raising light here?

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I agree. Ultimately, the fact that Villain was 5-betting with 3 players left to act, including 2 who he probably thought were good players, is what caused me to fold. Even though I still thought his most likely holding was TT-QQ, the factor you mentioned made me think there was enough of a chance that he had AA-KK that a call would only be marginally +EV at best.

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should we assume that the villian assumes that there are unpaired aces out? To me that is making too much of a stretch unless you have a reason to believe the villian thinks this way. Even if the villian thought this, would he still use this as a justification for pushing TT when he is still a big dog to JJ+?

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Perhaps he didn't think on this level, but I've seen him play enough to think he probably did. And if he did, I think he would have justification to push even with TT. He probably doesn't think I have a high pocket pair b/c he would expect me to raise. He's not worried about maniac. He may well be concerned with the initial raiser, but on the basis of probability, pushing TT against the initial raiser is likely to induce a fold -- particularly since the initial raiser would also have people left to act.

[Jeff76]

Does anybody else raise PF here? If I'm villain and I see the action thus far I am pushing TT+ easily- I won't against a TAG re-raise though.

At any rate- if the buy in is capped at 200 then I fold. If it is not and I can reload to cover maniacs stack then I call. I think you are getting odds to call, but you don't want to take a small edge and risking blow your chance to get money from an easy target at the table.

[Stonewalled]

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Does anybody else raise PF here? If I'm villain and I see the action thus far I am pushing TT+ easily- I won't against a TAG re-raise though.

At any rate- if the buy in is capped at 200 then I fold. If it is not and I can reload to cover maniacs stack then I call. I think you are getting odds to call, but you don't want to take a small edge and risking blow your chance to get money from an easy target at the table.

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Buy-in is capped at 200.

I thought seriously about re-raising to $200. But, I didn't because I was worried about the initial raiser (I figured his action would be the same whether I called or raised, so I could limit my risk by just calling), and also because I thought I might get maniac's stack if the flop hit me (he could easily stack off any top pair).

[CazicT]

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Does anybody else raise PF here? If I'm villain and I see the action thus far I am pushing TT+ easily- I won't against a TAG re-raise though.


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I'd like to hear some opinions on this myself. To me, there are good arguments both ways.

Calling
1. We are in position, so we don't mind seeing a flop. If the flop action gets crazy and we didn't hit, we can get out relatviely cheap.
2. Our hand is strong, but it is still only ace-high. If we raise and get called we won't like it very much if we don't hit the flop.

Raising
1. Raising prevents others from coming in light
2. Raising will either fold the original raiser getting us heads up against the maniac or let us know that the original raiser has something strong
3. Raising might win the pot right here, there is some decent money in there already, taking it down with just ace high would be nice.

[Stonewalled]

***bump*** for the late night crowd

[binions]

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1/2 Live (casino), 9-handed. Just need a sanity check here on the entire hand.

The original re-raiser, who I will call maniac is .... well, a maniac -- he's the guy at the local casino who makes everyone lick their chops -- spends a lot of money, plays wildly, raising huge with nothing, and usually busts out within a couple of hours.

The original raiser (MP), and Villain (BB), are both pretty solid players, and I've never seen either get out of line. Villain's image of me is TAG, on the very aggressive side -- he's seen me showdown nothing but very good hands, and I think he respects my play.

Villain has $270. MP, Maniac, and Hero have ~ $500.

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button.
4 folds, MP4 raises to $10, Maniac re-raises to $60, Hero calls, SB folds, Villain raises all-in to $270, MP folds, Maniac folds, Hero ???.

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Original raiser knows a maniac is behind him. Does he limp re-raise AA-KK with a maniac behind? Or does he make the initial raise, hope the Maniac re-raises (and thereafter hope that someone calls the maniac light)?

How likely is it that the guy with a good impression of you is making this play with AQ or some hand that's not AK or a pocket pair? I mean, is he the kind of player that makes squeeze plays and tries to create dead money in the pot?

With 180 in the pot and 210 to call, you need 35% equity to call. There are 3 ways to make AA, where your equity is ~7%. There are 3 ways to make KK, where your equity is 30%. There are 6 ways to make QQ where your equity is 45%. Against the range of AA-QQ, your equity is 31%. So, he has to have JJ and/or AK in his range to get you up to 35%. (Note - AKs has 35% equity vs. AA-QQ).

If in your opinion he ever bluffs here, you have to call. If in your opinion he could have Jacks (or worse pairs) here, you are getting the right price to call. If you are convinced he has only has AA-QQ, you have to fold.

[Stonewalled]

Thanks, Binions, very good post and very helpful.