#21
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Re: 4/180 W/TT, Not sure I\'m ahead enough to continue
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Betting flop is a bluff. But an ace is clearly in your range, so folding out JJ-KK is ev. [/ QUOTE ]I bet an ace here 100% because he isn't check/folding JJ-KK on this flop. |
#22
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Re: 4/180 W/TT, Not sure I\'m ahead enough to continue
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Let's say that he never calls on the river with an unpaired hand (i.e. K high). Let us then assume that he has a PP (not unreasonable given his line). Let us further assume that 50% of the time he has JJ-KK and 50% of the time he has a lower pair (that did not make a set). These numbers are hypothetical and arbitrary. Let us then assume that he will call our river bet 50% of the time and fold 50% of the time. So 1/4 of the time we fold out a worse hand and pick up the pot. 1/4 of the time we fold out a better hand and pick up the pot. 1/4 of the time he calls with a worse hand and we gain EV. 1/4 of the time he calls with a better hand and we lose EV. Using these very crude estimates, it seems that betting is the only reasonable option on the river. If he has a worse hand, we gain nothing by checking (and obvioulsy lose value when he would have called). If he has a better hand and will sometimes fold to a river bet, we gain. Thus, betting on the river is the obvious play IMO. The only question that remains is how much. [/ QUOTE ]My head just exploded thank you. Math is hard. Let me think about this when I'm not too sleepy to think straight. |
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