I liked this shove until I reviewed the session (Warning: Math inside)

[Sam T.]

Villain is 37/16 over a tiny sample, though I don't think I knew it at the time. Hand, then analysis.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $10.70
BB: $14.15
UTG: $15.30
MP: $9.90
CO: $11.40
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $10.05</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $0.90</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $9.15</font>

Pre-flop is meh. Yeah, I'll be in position, but at this level, re-raises usually mean what they say. It was just so small, you know?

Flop: If I've got him on a tight range (overpair to the board, or a very strong ace) my shove will only fold the the latter. So, I get a fold say, half the time. If (and this is a big if) this is right, pretty easy shove, right?

Maths - which could be waay out to lunch. I was a history major:
(Shove/fold) + (shove/win) + (shove/lose)=
(.5 * $4) + (.25 * $9.25) + (.25 * (-9.15))
$2 + $2.31 - $2.28 = +$2

As to the amount, it felt a bit like an overbet, but the stacks are awkward enough I couldn't come up with a better amount. Yes or no?

Bear with me, I'm a refugee from donkaments, and don't try math very often.

[derosnec]

he's not folding, not after he reraised pf, which is like a high PP at 10nl like 98% of the time

[pkrplyrX]

When the SB bets out the size of the pot, I just fold and ship the $0.90 rather than risking $10.05.

I think your estimation that the villian will fold 50% of the time is off. The combination of a min-raise preflop and the large PSB on the flop adds up to an overpair, just trust him and fold. So here is my gander at the math:

(.25*$4)+(.75*.36*$11.15)-(.75*.64*$9.15)= -$0.38

(25% of the time villian folds for +$4)+(75% of time you are drawing to 36% flush draw to win current $2 pot plus additional $9.15 betting on flop)-(75% of time you expect to lose 64% when FD does not hit for loss of $9.15 bet)=
-EV of $0.38

This is a close one, and it all comes down to how often the villian will fold to your push. I used 25% fold frequency in my numbers, and I see you used 50%.

I am very curious, did villian have it?!

[Sam T.]

Going to bed, so results in white:

<font color="white">Villain had a couple of nines. No diamond love but I turned a king. But I agree that I probably should have ditched a dominated hand pre-flop, and absolutely folded the flop.</font>

[coordi]

If he follows through on the flop for full pot, he most likely has AA/KK etc. If he had checked or bet somthing like 50c-1, you would have some FE here. There is no way hes leaving this hand.

[wildzer0]

I doubt you fold AK on this board vs. this opponent, I would say your FE is virtually zero here.

[bozzer]

I do these calculations this way:

EVcalled = p(winning)*total pot - cost

EVcalled = p*$20.3 - $9.15

Here I'm not sure what you're saying his betting and calling ranges are. For the calculation I'll give a calling range as:

{JJ+, any A with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]+, K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]} (3% of hands)

You're a 37% dog to this range, so:

EVcalled = .37*20 - 9 = -$1.6

EVnotcalled = $4

1.6/4 = 0.4

So you need FE of &gt;40%.

You just have about have that against a range of {66+,AJs+,KJs+,AQo+} (7.4% of hands). I don't know how well that corresponds to his min 3 betting range preflop though.