Early in a 10K -- So Many Options, Not Sure Which is Best

[Mingdu]

If 67 is in his range then so is 89 ...

That and the fact our hand has the appearance of a busted draw

The more I think about what he could play to this point coupled with how our hand looks the more I think folding is the wrong play

[BarryLyndon]

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Very interesting hand. I think you've played perfectly so far and agree completely with your reasoning for not 3-betting flop.

I don't see much reason to do anything but call the turn. If he's behind, he's probably drawing at 3-6 clean outs plus some dirty ones, so there's not a lot of value in raising. Folding is out of the question since you're sometimes good unimproved plus have 7 outs to the nuts or second nuts (straight flush draws are in his range, but obviously if he catches gin on the river that's just bad luck).

The river's going to be an interesting spot no matter what, since your hand looks quite a bit like a draw, is actually somewhat better than a draw, but is generally still behind the range he is representing (which, to be clear, is distinct from his actual range).

a. If he checks, you need to value bet. Anywhere from 2000-4000 works, but I'd recommend the higher end of the range, since you want to represent a busted draw to get called by the lowest end of his range. There's a good chance he's checking some better hands like 76, but I think you're ahead of his c/c range. This is actually a good spot for a river c/r bluff by him, since your failure to raise the turn really limits your hand strength, but I don't think you can give him credit for such a play, especially since he'll be offering you pretty good odds, and you'd need to fold.

If he makes a blocking bet of 1200-2000, I'd raise to about 3x his bet for the same reason I'd value bet if he checked.

A blatant value bet of like 2000-4000 on his part is tricky. I think his range for this is primarily hands moderately better than yours, mostly 76 and QJ, hoping to get called by stuff like AA and KK. Flip a coin? Lean towards fold?

If he bets big, like 4000+, his range is going to be busted draws and sets. I'd fold, despite the concern I mentioned above about how clearly weak your hand is, because you know he isn't on the nut flush draw, stack depth isn't ideal for him to play a draw this way, and most people just plain don't bluff the river enough.

b. A Q actually doesn't change your plan that much, because it counterfeits 76 and still leaves you behind QJ and sets. I'd obviously bet if he checks, and I'd raise a blocking bet (fold to a shove), but I'd fold to a big bet, and would actually be more inclined to fold to anything that I felt was a value bet trying to milk an overpair, since any hand he could have that still beats an overpair also beats AQ.

c. Bet if he checks, but man am I hating life if he check-shoves. I can taste puke just thinking about it. I guess it's a fold, but let's hope it doesn't come to that. Raise a blocking bet, but leave yourself room to fold to a shove.

d. You didn't ask, but I think an Ace on the river is worth discussing, also. I'd actually rather see an Ace than a Queen, since there are more ways for worse hands to pay off and for him to misread our hand as a bare nut draw that backdoored top pair rather than as top two. Bet if checked to, raise a blocking bet, call a mid-sized value bet, consider calling a larger bet (depends whether you think QJ and 76 are in his range, I'd assert that they could be because of the chance that you backdoored somethink like TPTK with AsKs).

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Pppppppppppppppphhhhhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeewwwwww, well that's that then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. nh.

[THAY3R]

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If 67 is in his range then so is 89 ...

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This is only somewhat correct, since both hands can be in his range, but he won't necessarily be playing 89 this way. If you think theres a chance he makes a play with an OESD this way then it's a definite call.

[NoahSD]

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a) maybe fold maybe call depends on what he does
b) prob just call
c) So you mean exactly the six of spades? Seems like just calling would be best unless he bets small.

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I agree, except I think you can just fold any brick river if he bets more than half pot. Obv just call on an A river.

[NoahSD]

Foucault, I really disagree with raising a block bet for value here. I think if we raise a block bet on a brick, he hems and haws and calls with 67 and instamucks anything worse.

Remember that his range on the turn bet doesn't include many weaker made hands.. he mainly either has a draw or a hand that beats us.

Even betting a brick river when checked to is kinda thinnish for that reason, although the combination of the fact that we'll probably get called by JT when he decides to get to the river with JT and the fact that he probably doesn't check anything better than 76 that often make it a bet in spite of the fact that he doesn't often have many made hands we beat on the turn.

Sorry if that was rambling and incoherent.

[THAY3R]

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a) maybe fold maybe call depends on what he does
b) prob just call
c) So you mean exactly the six of spades? Seems like just calling would be best unless he bets small.

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I agree, except I think you can just fold any brick river if he bets more than half pot. Obv just call on an A river.

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Calling a less than half pot and folding to a bigger bet just sounds sooooo flawed.

[Machinehead]

I think I'm calling the river. If I added it right, were looking at a 3-4k bet into a pot a little over 6k? We have TPTK and every draw on a draw heavy board just missed. I think a lot of wiffed draws are in his range.

I don't know what his river staredown means so I didn't factor it in.

[THEOSU]

i think the interesting part of this river is the pre-bet staredown. i have no idea what it means, nor do i have any past history with a pre-bet staredown meaning anything, and in thinking over what i've read of caro, i'm not sure he's written anything about it either. i mean, i know strong means weak, but he's not slamming chips in there. if i was torn between calling and folding, i would call out of curiosity.

having said that, given the action of the hand, i think we can pretty safely fold. he's never value betting worse, but he'd have to be running one hell of a bluff to win the hand, a bluff line that i'm unwilling to credit to unknowns. as far as semibluff/bluff possibilities, those hands are what, 45, 89 and KTss?

[adanthar]

played well so far, now fold the river because he probably isn't value betting a jack and his bluff range <<<< his "more than one pair" range.

[KingDan]

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a) maybe fold maybe call depends on what he does
b) prob just call
c) So you mean exactly the six of spades? Seems like just calling would be best unless he bets small.

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Why? Makes more sense to me than calling a big bet and folding to a small one.

I agree, except I think you can just fold any brick river if he bets more than half pot. Obv just call on an A river.

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Calling a less than half pot and folding to a bigger bet just sounds sooooo flawed.

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Why? Makes more sense to me than calling a big bet and folding to a small one.