50NL: AA CRAI on Dry Flop

TJgniL · #1 05-31-2007, 01:24 PM

Effective stacks are $35.25.

Reads: I've only been at the table for a few orbits. My HUD wasn't working so no stats on villain. He seemed to be positionally aware and competent. Semi aggressive both pre and post flop.

Villain opens from UTG+1 to $2
Hero 3-bets to $6.75 from BTN w/ AA
Villain calls $4.75

Flop (14.25) [823r]
Villain checks, Hero bets $9, Villain raises AI to $28.50, Hero?

This line along with the board smells pretty strongly of a set. I don't see villain doing this w/ 99-JJ. There's $51.75 in the pot and it's $19.50 back to me, so I only need to be ahead a little over 27% to be +EV.

Thoughts on whether or not this is QQ/KK often enough to make the call?

ssdex · #2 05-31-2007, 01:27 PM

this is a pretty easy call...... deeper i would be more worried, but his shoving range there seems a lot wider than sets fwiw... and a lot wider than kk qq....... im pretty sure he does this with 10 10 and J J and even sometimes as bad as it sounds with AK..... this is a +ev call

ssdex · #3 05-31-2007, 01:28 PM

plus I can only fathom 1 hand that beats you right now, 88, if he called with 22 or 33 I call him a donkey and insta reload and win my money back.

rakes.a.beach · #4 05-31-2007, 01:28 PM

converter would be nice.

losingdonkey · #5 05-31-2007, 01:31 PM

its 99-KK often enough, also some odd A8s and open enders make this +ev

tiger_hall · #6 05-31-2007, 01:31 PM

u lose to one hand... 88
insta call

losingdonkey · #7 05-31-2007, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
plus I can only fathom 1 hand that beats you right now, 88, if he called with 22 or 33 I call him a expert and insta reload and win my money back.

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

TJgniL · #8 05-31-2007, 01:39 PM

I did in fact snap call him. Just looking through some hands from my session and wanted to get some opinions on ranges on such a dry board and the EV of my play.

Sam T. · #9 05-31-2007, 01:43 PM

If he's check-raising with a set he's terrible. (Not to say he wouldn't do it, but it's still terrible.)

I call.

relativity_x · #10 05-31-2007, 01:48 PM

On this board, a set would have to check-call for sure. Then lead turn? I always have trouble playing sets for maximum value. On the other hand, if the board was suited/coordinated, you would want to lead, right?

Sorry for hijacking.