Three pairs and a side pot

Gorvacofin · #1 05-30-2007, 05:10 AM

Suppose I'm playing NLH and the short stack on my right goes all-in with 77. I have her covered, and go all-in with TT. The big stack behind us decides to join the party and calls with 99.

This happened last night. The flop came 779 (!) and I lost both pots [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

My question is: What were my chances of losing BOTH the side pot and the main pot, and how do I work this out?

Siegmund · #2 05-30-2007, 03:06 PM

They are simply your chances of losing against one other player -- the one in the main pot with you. (It's impossible for YOU to win the side pot but not the main pot.)

How you work that out depends what hand ranges you think the big stack joins the party with.

Gorvacofin · #3 05-31-2007, 05:34 AM

Right. But I could lose the side pot and win the main pot, as the 77 has no money invested in the main pot. I wanted to know the chances of winning neither pot, assuming I know what the other players have.

shadowclown · #4 05-31-2007, 11:53 AM

I believe your question is what is the probability of loosing to both hands, and to do that you need to multiply the percentage loosing to one hand by the other.

It changes a little by which suit the cards were but it will be similar to what I calculated.

99 to win the pot is 18.61% or .1861
77 to win the pot is 14.99% or .1499
For both events to occur it would be (.1499 * .1861) = .0279

I believe the answer is 2.79%

shadowThatsBadLuckclown

Siegmund · #5 05-31-2007, 03:37 PM

Sigh. I see I had a typo in my previous post. All you care about is whether the other person in the SIDE pot beats you. (Somehow "deep stack" morphed into "main" when I wrote before.) I hoped, even looking back, that might have been clear from my second paragraph...

If you lose to 99, you have lost everything. If the short stack happens to also beat you, that is irrelevant to your own finances - it just decides which of your two opponents gets your money.