NL200: AK pre-flop decision

[Stonewalled]

1/2 Live (casino), 9-handed. Just need a sanity check here on the entire hand.

The original re-raiser, who I will call maniac is .... well, a maniac -- he's the guy at the local casino who makes everyone lick their chops -- spends a lot of money, plays wildly, raising huge with nothing, and usually busts out within a couple of hours.

The original raiser (MP), and Villain (BB), are both pretty solid players, and I've never seen either get out of line. Villain's image of me is TAG, on the very aggressive side -- he's seen me showdown nothing but very good hands, and I think he respects my play.

Villain has $270. MP, Maniac, and Hero have ~ $500.

Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button.
4 folds, MP4 raises to $10, Maniac re-raises to $60, Hero calls, SB folds, Villain raises all-in to $270, MP folds, Maniac folds, Hero ???.

[raistlinx]

You are getting about 1.85-1 to call here so you need to win 35% of the time. Against a range of TT+,AKs,AKo you need to have about 1.5 - 1 to call.

But this is of course the high variance play. Given how you have said the maniac plays, I don't mind folding to the solid player here and saving your ammo while looking for a better shot to bust the maniac.

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting about 1.85-1 to call here so you need to win 35% of the time. Against a range of TT+,AKs,AKo you need to have about 1.5 - 1 to call.


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Generally AK is a much better pushing hand than a calling hand, but fter crunching some Pokerstove myself, it basically boils down to this:

If you put AK in his range, then you can definetly call, though it will be high variance. If not, then you should probably fold unless you believe he would do this with pairs down to TT.

Personally, I think his range here is QQ+, AK. He made this all-in raise when there were still people other than the maniac left to act, so I don't think he would push with mid-pairs. AK is a great pushing hand so I could definetly see him pushing AK.

I think I might fold myself, but only because I wouldn't want to subject myself to the high variance, but it probably is a +EV call.

[cgm93]

If Villian knows your a good player, and knows Maniac is, well, a maniac, and knows you know that, I think there is a decent percentage of the time that he's re-raising light here because he thinks your calling light on Maniac's raise and thinks his re-raise all in gets you both to go away...its close, but I think you're ok here often enough to call.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
If Villian knows your a good player, and knows Maniac is, well, a maniac, and knows you know that, I think there is a decent percentage of the time that he's re-raising light here because he thinks your calling light on Maniac's raise and thinks his re-raise all in gets you both to go away...its close, but I think you're ok here often enough to call.

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That's exactly what I was thinking about Villain's thought process. Also, I was thinking there probably were at least 2 Aces out from the players who acted before Villain, which had 2 effects.

First, it made me think he did not have AA or AK. Also, since I had a King in my hand, he most likely did not have KK. I thought he more likely had TT-QQ.

Second, it made me think he was pushing because he thought at least 2 unpaired Aces were out, and that a push would fold everyone out, again meaning that he most likely had TT-QQ.

But, my real struggle at the table was figuring out whether the times he does have AA/KK would make my call -EV or at best marginal +EV.

[Javanewt]

I kind of agree with CazicT, although I'm not sure it's +EV. If villain is solid, I think he's doing this with a solid hand that is probably ahead of you or it's a coin flip and you are on the light side of the coin. Possibly a tie, but I'd still get out.

Edit: If I thought two As were out and he had TT-QQ, I'd definitely fold.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: If I thought two As were out and he had TT-QQ, I'd definitely fold.

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One of the Aces was mine. But, you're still probably right.

[onoble]

I think its a fold.

Not to Hijack... but what would you guys do if HERO held pocket jacks.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a fold.

Not to Hijack... but what would you guys do if HERO held pocket jacks.

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[Hijacker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]] I would fold JJ. Either crushed by AA-QQ, or coin-flipping with 2 overcards almost all the time, whereas AK is really only crushed by AA (and 30% v. KK).

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
If Villian knows your a good player, and knows Maniac is, well, a maniac, and knows you know that, I think there is a decent percentage of the time that he's re-raising light here because he thinks your calling light on Maniac's raise and thinks his re-raise all in gets you both to go away...its close, but I think you're ok here often enough to call.

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If the MP players wasn't still in the hand, then I could see this being a squeeze play by the villian, but doesn't the original raiser still being left to act decrease the likelyhood that the villian is raising light here?



[ QUOTE ]
That's exactly what I was thinking about Villain's thought process. Also, I was thinking there probably were at least 2 Aces out from the players who acted before Villain, which had 2 effects.

First, it made me think he did not have AA or AK. Also, since I had a King in my hand, he most likely did not have KK. I thought he more likely had TT-QQ.

Second, it made me think he was pushing because he thought at least 2 unpaired Aces were out, and that a push would fold everyone out, again meaning that he most likely had TT-QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if we should assume that any aces are out from the previous players, but even more, should we assume that the villian assumes that there are unpaired aces out? To me that is making too much of a stretch unless you have a reason to believe the villian thinks this way. Even if the villian thought this, would he still use this as a justification for pushing TT when he is still a big dog to JJ+?