NL25: Is this a Baluga fold?

Emperor Norton · #1 05-31-2007, 02:49 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($12.05)
SB ($37.35)
BB ($34.65)
Hero ($27.05)
MP ($25)
CO ($54.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $0.35.
Hero raises to $1.25, MP (poster) calls $1, 4 folds.

Flop: ($2.95) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP calls $2.

Turn: ($6.95) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, MP raises to $21.65, Hero?

When I bet the turn, I said to myself that I'd probably have to fold if villain pushed. However, he took a long time to think about it (which may or may not be significant) which gave me some time to ponder. The bottom card pairing significantly reduced the number of sets that he could have, and given that JJ often three-bets preflop, it's somewhat less likely than normal that he has a boat or better. Does that make this a call?

Fiksdal · #2 05-31-2007, 02:57 AM

Your reasoning is the exact same thoughts that went through my head fwiw. JJ should 3bet you preflop. 33 is now very unlikely, and perhaps he'd even keep slowplaying if that was what he had (you know how they always do that).

55 is possible I guess.

However, I think he really could have AJ/KJ/QJ here. It's the turn checkraises I'm usually the most worried about. Here he just pushed over you with position, so it doesn't look that scary really. Villain could certainly have AJ here IMO. And also, this is villains first hand at the table, and you know how fishies always HAVE to play there first hand especially after posting OOP and they have to keep playing.

I think this is a call. Especially considering that he was a poster OOP, he could even have TJ here.

Lego05 · #3 05-31-2007, 03:01 AM

I think that this is close. But I say call and hopefully see a J.

rivhawk02 · #4 05-31-2007, 03:05 AM

Any reads on villain? They have posted a dead blind and called a raise with a posting hand so they may have been at the table for a bit. This hand makes them seem somewhat loose, having called this raise with a random hand

TheRenaissance · #5 05-31-2007, 03:20 AM

I call pretty quick.

ocdscale · #6 05-31-2007, 04:09 AM

The longer they take the call, the more likely I am to fold, to be honest.
When someone puts in a big bet/raise after thinking, they were rarely if ever considering folding. Their thought process goes like this: "Hmm, how much should I raise? Should I just cold-call? How do I get the most money in this hand?"

I don't think he has JJ (since he posted, and just called. He'd probably 3bet if it was his first hand), and 33 is obviously unlikely. 55 is possible. Trash hands with a 3 are possible, A3, K3, 43, 53, etc.
So are JT+ type hands which he might be overvaluing here, but I don't think it's likely he shoves those hands. Seems like he'd raise flop with that (since any overcard worries him, and there's a flush draw).

I probably let this go, although there's a little worry that he may be just trying to move your AK/AQ off the hand. (Comfort yourself knowing that you play JJ the same way but obviously snap off his raise).

creamfillin · #7 05-31-2007, 04:25 AM

He posted OOP so it's more likely he has trash (a 3), at least that's how I look at it. People who post OOP like to spite call with garbage because they get annoyed that someone raised their post.

BoerfSt · #8 05-31-2007, 04:28 AM

I call this.Only hand i'm afraid of is 55.

Fiksdal · #9 05-31-2007, 05:42 AM

Creamfillin has a point that given his OOP post, he could have like 43s here. I probably still call though.

Zanton · #10 05-31-2007, 08:40 AM

Any read could be helpful here.

I think I should fold without a read, but I call at table.