Showdown percentages for full ring LO8 - 45% ??

[Grandma_DOG]

Here and there in the posts, I've seen allusions to the fact that if you don't go to showdown 45% of the time (over a statistically meaningful sample) you have a hole in your game.

And I do have a hole in my game, several, I think. I'm trying to plug them. My Poker Tracker stats say I go to showdown 38-40% (with a 1.7 aggression factor) in the .5/1 and 1/2 games. So the first question is:

1) Is the 45% rule of thumb true? And will that vary as the games increase to 2/4 10/20, etc.?

2)If true, that beckons the next question. Which category of hands do I take to showdown anyway even if I believe them beat? Yea, its a nebulous question. My instinct is the high drawing hands that failed but gave me 2 pair, probably mid and low pairs. (I already call with the top 2 if I'm at the river anyway) My thinking is I'm at the river anyway, I came here with a draw and its merely 1 BB to call. Otherwise, I just don't see taking top 2 pair from flop with no other draws all the way to river in a 3+ multiway pot if there's action.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bbartlog]

I'm not so sure this is a good rule of thumb... seems like optimal showdown percentage would be a little bit lower in a loose game and higher in a tight one. Furthermore, in a lot of lower limit games people play in a very straightforward fashion, and you can fold on the river with more confidence. So I'm not sure the idea of an optimal showdown percentage is valid...

[chaos]

How often you go to the showdown when you see a flop will be dependent on how many hands you are playing preflop.

How many hands you play preflop should be dependent on the game conditions (number of players, loose/tight, passive aggressive).

I do not think a showdown percentage is too meaningful unless you only play in a very narrow range of game conditions.

- chaos

[Grandma_DOG]

Well, after my long and consistent losing streak, I'm going to have to play a very narrow range of conditions to keep Ceterius Paribus. Mainly to isolate and find the leaks in my game. I'm VP$IP about 22-25% and 66% from SB, and I raise about 6% pf usually with A2w suited in late position (I hate raising in EP with a pulling hand). I'll tighten up my starting hand requirements when there is lots of pf raising going on in the game.

I use PT and Pokerace HUD to give me better table selection. I open up tables and leave it running for hours. When its time to play, I choose the games with 35+% V$IP. Often, I find 40%+ games. So, my hole can't be game selection.

So with a 40%+ table thats loose, you're saying I should call them down more because they take more crap to the river?

[bbartlog]

Actually I was arguing the opposite: if opponents are loose, the odds that someone has made the nuts on a particular board are greater, so you shouldn't call down as light. Of course your odds to draw to the nuts may improve if the pot is bigger, so there may be situations where you can call in a loose game where you would fold in a tight one; but that depends on pot odds. In general I would expect that as the game gets looser, you end up winning fewer, but bigger, pots (so, lower showdown percentage).
Related PT question, if you want to find leaks that way: what is your 'Win $ When Went to Showdown'? If it's very high (like over 70%) then you are probably folding too much.
Also, over how many hands are you losing? It's possible that you are just on a downswing...

[Grandma_DOG]

I'm losing over 4,600 hands in .25/.5 .5/1 1/2 games averaging (-2BB/100). My W$SD is 56%. Oddly, I'm doing best in the highest game, the 1/2 where my %WSD is highest(40%), there i'm winning 0.02BB/100.

I've identified several leaks, how I play my trips and sets is fishy, but I'm working on that (see my posts about Optimally playing trips). But I'm doing something absolutely, horribly wrong when I'm heads up. I can't seem to find advice on heads up play because the forum search engine craps out trying to find posts.

[jschell]

Playing my first 2,000 hands at $1/$2 - $3/$6 at FTP where the average table $VPiP is usually low 30s, my showdown percentage is about 32% (with results of +0.4BB/100). I know I'm still a LO8 noob, but I can't imagine being able to win with a 45% showdown percentage. Although, I play pretty TAG, so maybe if I was more loose/passive that number might be higher.

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I was arguing the opposite: if opponents are loose, the odds that someone has made the nuts on a particular board are greater, so you shouldn't call down as light...

[/ QUOTE ]
To add to that, at the micro/low limits, with your opponents playing between 40% - 70% of their hands, unless you've flopped the nuts or have a monster draw to the nuts, you don't really know where you stand. That's why tight is right as these levels. I think the 45% for Went to Showdown is a little deceiving. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on trying to get there. My point is, the majority of the players don't pay attention at the table or realize that you have only played 4 out of 30 hands. Here's a perfect example from my LO8 SNG last night. At this point in the SNG I had only played 5 out of 35 hands voluntarily. I apoligze for not using a hand converter. I'm at work and they block all the gambooling sites [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Villain's stats:
VP$IP: 96% (Yes...he only folded 2 hands out of 35)
PFR: 34%
AF: 8

Stage #767735437 Tourney ID 53575 Omaha Hi/Lo Single Tournament Normal
$150/$300 - 2007-05-31 23:50:32 (ET)
Table: 1073658 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 2 - Hero ($4842.50 in chips)
Seat 6 - COLOFGREEN ($4752.50 in chips)
Seat 7 - Villain ($2000 in chips)
Seat 9 - CHEAPSHOT1 ($1905 in chips)
CHEAPSHOT1 - Posts small blind $75
Hero - Posts big blind $150
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7h 10s 7c Ah]
COLOFGREEN - Calls $150
MAXXXXX - Calls $150
CHEAPSHOT1 - Folds
Hero - Checks
*** FLOP *** [7s Jd 7d]
Hero - Checks
COLOFGREEN - Bets $150
MAXXXXX - Calls $150
Hero - Raises $300 to $300
COLOFGREEN - Folds
MAXXXXX - Calls $150
*** TURN *** [7s Jd 7d] [8c]
Hero - Checks
MAXXXXX - Bets $300
Hero - Raises $600 to $600
MAXXXXX - Calls $300
*** RIVER *** [7s Jd 7d 8c] [8s]
Hero - Bets $300
MAXXXXX - Calls $300
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero - Shows [7h 10s 7c Ah] (Four of a kind, sevens)
MAXXXXX - Shows [2d 9d 10d 3h] (Straight, seven to jack)
Hero Collects $3075 from main pot.

[Beavis68]

I have over 13k hands at .25/.5 and .5/1 and I have averaging 3.8bb/100

My went to SD is 33.75% and my W$SD is 62.64%

[Grandma_DOG]

Thats pretty damn good, Beavis. I wonder if your stats skew much with good hand reading ability? How well do you think you can read hands?

Personally, I know I suck at hand reading. I have trouble just figuring out if villian is going high or low. So I will see more to showdown.

Also out of curiosity, whats your VP$IP and from SB? I'm about 21% VPIP and 50% sb.

-mt