Which is most likely

[Jay.]

Villian is a 23/17 over 800 hands, although i've never seen him before so that's datamined, he knows nothing of me other than i've been slightly active so far.

I can't decide which hand is most likely for this type of player, mostly because it's so rare to see this line taken so i'm interested in seeing what a poll brings up.

Unknown min raises to $20 UTG. Villian calls next in. I reraise the SB to $100 (we are 1.2k effective. my hand isn't important), unknown folds, and villian calls.

Flop: 4h 4s 9h. I bet $170. He calls. Nothing noticeable in timing.

Turn: 8s. Pot: $470. I bet $400 (now $530 behind) he thinks for a while and calls.

So out of the 3 options in the poll below which do you think is most likely, state your reasons in the thread too. Also, lets ignore hands like AA 44 99 as they are irrevelant to my decision, just which you think is most likely out of the options you have.

so hes got 130 left? i dont think 23/17 is calling very light here (e.g. 22-77) unless you have been VERY active in your small history.

i vote 2

[Jay.]

$530 left. $530 behind after my bet. sorry.

[creative]

i just see this as 77-22, id think tjh etc would raise the flop..bleh i just think this is more consistent with a small pp

[Jay.]

I might as well add my hand, i had AKo high here and was thinking about inducing a river bluff because i thought his range was mostly TJhh 67hh (i shouldn't have put 86hh 87hh in that range), but then i thought 77 66 was more likely and shoved, then i wasn't sure which was most likely as he snap folded. I'm still not sure.

[silenced]

could definitely be both, however i picked option 2 because i think c/r is less likely from option 2 range on a paired board. Also, calling 400 on the turn with a small pp here is far less likely than a combo draw