9's with river decision

[Perseus]

Villian is a TAG

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (10.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds.

River: (10.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ??

[Spy Dog]

Calling or folding is probably going to net nearly the same amount over the long haul. I think folding might be slightly better.

[silencio]

So, you put him on exactly KQ? I think I fold this flop. Even your 2 outs might not be good with button hanging around there. If you called the turn than you probably don't think he has the goods. Why than aren't you calling this river?

[Moozh]

Is it too simplistic to say either fold to the flop raise or show this down on this board? If you just call the flop raise, of course he's going to keep betting when more blanks come. If he's overaggressive, that's good... you'll get him to bet your hand for you. But, if he's a more complete player, you might want to think about what he's raising the flop with.

Personally, I'm fine with you calling this down. He could have KQ or a worse pair. AJ, AT, KJ are also likely though, so it's close. I just really don't like calling to the river and then folding. What's the point of that?

[jakeduke]

I'm folding against a TAG. I think I'm beat when he makes the turn bet.

At least from my perspective, I don't like to make flop raises OOP in multiway pots with a draw. It sucks to make that turn bet into 2+ people when I brick. That makes me think he's not doing it either, so I'm probably way behind.

[Knoler]

I muck the flop. You're drawing to two outs and a backdoor draw a lot of the time. Also, spiking a 9 could be really bad news, as KQ is soldly in the opponent's range. 14:1 isn't nearly enough.

The turn is close, but I think calling is fine.

Once you make it to the river, reads are important. Is opponent the type to push AQ like this, figuring himself for possibly 4 outs + tainted overs + fold equity? Would he keep pushing KQ like this? If not it's an easy fold. If so, I think this is close. Against an average player, I fold.

-Brian

[silencio]

[ QUOTE ]


Personally, I'm fine with you calling this down. He could have KQ or a worse pair. AJ, AT, KJ are also likely though, so it's close. I just really don't like calling to the river and then folding. What's the point of that?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 12 AJ, 12 KJ, 12 AT 3 TT for a total of 39 combos that we will lose to. If we assume that villain is making a move with 77 and 88 than we are ahead of 16 KQ, 6 77's, 6 88's or a total of 30. So we are mostly losing this hand not to mention that button will hang aroung with any piece of the flop that beats us and that villain is probably not puling a move with 77 and 88 on a board like this. Even if villain is semi buffing with KQ he has 14 outs against us. I fold the flop.