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#1
05-29-2007, 08:23 AM
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Bottom Set, Possible Fold
2/5nl live. 10-handed, 100bb effective. Villain here is UTG and literally has his chips racked while half standing when he raises to $25 to play his last hand. I call 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG+1, 4 others call.
History/Reads: I've played with this guy several times and he's def. one of the "better" 2/5nl players. He's a little too loose, but I'm confident his range is very tight here. As players begin to call his bet he states, "well, atleast I have the best hand now." (He had been complaining a bit recently about not getting any good cards and that's why he said he was leaving) I smile and say, "I'm pretty sure I've got you beat." He says, "Oh no, I definitely have the best hand, but I imagine someone will outdraw me on the flop." FLOP($150)Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 players Villain quickly bets $100, Hero... I say "wow, can you just tell me what you have, that would really help." He smiles and says, "my hand is still good." And I start to get that awful feeling in the pit of my stomache. He says, "What's the problem, are you on a draw." I laugh a little and say "no." If it makes a difference, this guy likely views me as pretty tight and will get away from AA/KK a decent amount of the time if I raise here. 
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#5
05-29-2007, 08:35 AM
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Re: Bottom Set, Possible Fold
[ QUOTE ]
6 combos of QQ/TT, 12 combos of AA/KK. Shove now and even if he folds AA/KK 100% of the time and only calls QQ/TT, run the math, you prolly still make $. [/ QUOTE ] $27 fwiw
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#6
05-29-2007, 08:36 AM
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Re: Bottom Set, Possible Fold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 6 combos of QQ/TT, 12 combos of AA/KK. Shove now and even if he folds AA/KK 100% of the time and only calls QQ/TT, run the math, you prolly still make $. [/ QUOTE ] $27 fwiw [/ QUOTE ] there you go. Plus, you flop a set once every three days live?
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#7
05-29-2007, 08:41 AM
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Re: Bottom Set, Possible Fold
[ QUOTE ]
You're thinking about folding a set live for 100bb? LOL! [/ QUOTE ] This line of logic works well for beginning players. 99% of the time it is good advice, but like 1% of the time a good player can see player/table dynamics that a beginning player will miss. Situations like that are where a good player gets his edge. That being said, I'd probally raise to about 300. Board is draw heavy and he could be leveling on his last hand.
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