Odds of winning HU pushing every hand?

[Somebee]

Hi. I have a discussion going with a pal of mine, about how likely it would be to win against Ivey (or any other pro) HU, by pushing every hand preflop.

The scenario is stacks at 50xBB (increasing every 10 hands or so). In this secnario, Ivey folds every hand in SB to, unless he is ready to end all in (don't ask me why :P)

What do you think would be the odds of winning here? Thanks for any input.

[tomalechat]

Well, if he realizes you're pushing with EVERY hands, from his point of view, all you are holding is a "random hand".
He could make the call with any hand that is above 50% of winning against a random hand, for exemple any Ace, any King, etc. You may have a good hand at this moment but on the long term, he can be sure to win.

[Somebee]

Yes he does realize you push every hand. But even though that's the case, I don't think he has a big edge. He could call with the first hand where he was likely to have the best hand, but if he does that he would often toss the coin.

My point is, I don't think he will be a huge favourite in the long run? 50xBB isnt that much?

[RichGambler]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes he does realize you push every hand. But even though that's the case, I don't think he has a big edge. He could call with the first hand where he was likely to have the best hand, but if he does that he would often toss the coin.

My point is, I don't think he will be a huge favourite in the long run? 50xBB isnt that much?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you push every hand he can wait for top 10% hands
Which will win vs your random hand 68% of the time.

Thats what kind of edge he will have.
Any random hand has about 30% equity vs even the strongest set of hands.

[meow_meow]

Well, the only hands that are even a 70% favorite against a random hand are AA through 99. The average wait time for such a hand is 37, which is clearly too long.

Too lazy to do any further calcs, but given this scenario I don't think it is possible to be much better than a 60% favorite agaisnt the pusher.

[RichGambler]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the only hands that are even a 70% favorite against a random hand are AA through 99. The average wait time for such a hand is 37, which is clearly too long.

Too lazy to do any further calcs, but given this scenario I don't think it is possible to be much better than a 60% favorite agaisnt the pusher.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong top 10% hands vs random hand are 68% favorite.
All you need to do is to wait 10 hands and the fireworks...

[hra146]

didnt Gordon or someone write in his book that if you did exactly this you wouldnt be more than a 40% dog to any player on earth?

I always found it hard to believe, but Id be surprised if sb like Gordon made a mathematical error in a book. (This issue is purely mathematical)

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, the only hands that are even a 70% favorite against a random hand are AA through 99. The average wait time for such a hand is 37, which is clearly too long.

Too lazy to do any further calcs, but given this scenario I don't think it is possible to be much better than a 60% favorite agaisnt the pusher.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong top 10% hands vs random hand are 68% favorite.
All you need to do is to wait 10 hands and the fireworks...

[/ QUOTE ]
In Aces & Kings, Ferguson is quoted as saying he calculated it at 60-40, also in Sklanksys Tourney book this is dicussed, with similar results.

You don't "just have to wait 10 hands" for a top 10%, because the distribution of them is uneven. I'm sure everyone has experiencing going 40-50 hands without anything remotely playable.

[Araklion]

[ QUOTE ]
didnt Gordon or someone write in his book that if you did exactly this you wouldnt be more than a 40% dog to any player on earth?

I always found it hard to believe, but Id be surprised if sb like Gordon made a mathematical error in a book. (This issue is purely mathematical)

[/ QUOTE ]

Gordon's right, since by the time your opponent is dealt a premium starting hand you'll have the chiplead ( this is even mroe significant as stacksizes decrease ). So even though your opponent might win this hand, Hero still has a stack to continue.

Another point is that Villians calling/pushing ranges change along with the distrubution of chips.
So he'll be forced to call allin with hands worse than the top 10% ( It's not relevant who of the palyers is the shortstack ).

[Somebee]

Can anyone point me to these calculations / simulations? How was the stack/bb-ratio?