#11
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
Why would a good player check the A here, I can't see them having an A ever.
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#12
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
[ QUOTE ]
Why would a good player check the A here, I can't see them having an A ever. [/ QUOTE ] True. But why would he be a good player? Good points tho. |
#13
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
Meh, super thin. I'd play the same & also check a non Q turn fwiw.
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#14
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
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Meh, super thin. I'd play the same & also check a non Q turn fwiw. [/ QUOTE ] Bet it, expecting to get called by Kx a fair amount. |
#15
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
easy bet. he could have a whole slew of kings and even QJ/QT here and call. as others have said aces should be betting the river.
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#16
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Re: AP 5/T. KQ missing river value? (Bonus reward inside, REAL $$)
i check. his relevant hand range is Ax, Kx, 4x. ignore QT/QJ for simplicity because they aren't many hand combos and they likely fold anyway.
if you don't discount the hands (like AQs or 42o) at all then the breakdown is 43%:28.5%:28.5% Ax:Kx:4x because two Ks and two 4s are visible. i've never looked at it this way but i think it's right. so undiscounted he can only have a worse K ~29% of the time. so in order to get to about 55% for his Kx hands, you have to discount Ax and 4x quite a bit. you should discount Ax a little because of the flop and river action (not a ton though because this board is bad for action w/ A5), and you should discount 4x a bit more because of preflop and turn action. so let's make some assumptions. discount Ax by 30% and 4x by 60%, Kx becomes 41%. discount Ax by 50% and 4x by 80%, Kx becomes 51%. Kx is not becoming enough of his range even when we very significantly discount his better hands, so i think it's safe to say it's a check. |
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