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#11
05-26-2007, 02:21 AM
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Re: 1/2, thanks for the turn free card, miss, then what?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] flop peel is pretty meh with two weak overcards and a BDSD, but i guess it's ok getting 14:1 and nearly closing the action. [/ QUOTE ] Personally I hate this peel. Two weak overcards, with two spades on deck. Which hands does UTG c/c the flop with? I would assume TT+ would be a c/r (no reads so I dont know), I could only see him c/c'ing with hands like AQ and AK which have you dominated. If he doesn't, then someone else does. Say you turn a non-spade queen. I think this gets you in even more trouble. [/ QUOTE ] getting 14:1, we only need ~3 outs to continue. i agree that this is a RIO situation, but with all the overlay and with good relative position, i'll take my chances and play poker on the turn. 
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#14
05-28-2007, 12:04 AM
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Re: 1/2, thanks for the turn free card, miss, then what?
Well, I raised, and everyone folded. I almost autofolded. On the turn my plan was to check to the button and let him make the mistake of giving me a free shot at my gutshot. Fortunatly that worked out. On the river UTG bets, (and I have to give credit to that_guy_33, since his analysis was much better than mine), and I need everyone to fold 19% of the time to show a profit. The way I've played this hand its believable that I might hold a 3 to complete the one-liner straight. I figure cutoff missed his draw and cant cold call, button has JJ-KK and cant cold call, and UTG could easily have AQ-AK (but would he really bet the river with either of these hands?), but he might also be desperation betting with 99, KJ-KQ. I grant he probably doesnt have these hands often enough for my play to be correct. Just wanted to throw this one out there to see if anyone saw any potential to raising.
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#15
05-28-2007, 01:21 AM
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Re: 1/2, thanks for the turn free card, miss, then what?
[ QUOTE ]
Well, I raised, and everyone folded. I almost autofolded. On the turn my plan was to check to the button and let him make the mistake of giving me a free shot at my gutshot. Fortunatly that worked out. On the river UTG bets, (and I have to give credit to that_guy_33, since his analysis was much better than mine), and I need everyone to fold 19% of the time to show a profit. The way I've played this hand its believable that I might hold a 3 to complete the one-liner straight. I figure cutoff missed his draw and cant cold call, button has JJ-KK and cant cold call, and UTG could easily have AQ-AK (but would he really bet the river with either of these hands?), but he might also be desperation betting with 99, KJ-KQ. I grant he probably doesnt have these hands often enough for my play to be correct. Just wanted to throw this one out there to see if anyone saw any potential to raising. [/ QUOTE ] Well I'm not sure how my analysis has anything to do with your post to be honest but... thanks? Also, congradulations on taking down the pot but there is no way this raise is profitable in the long run... I think you are misapplying some key concepts in your logic. It is important not to be results-oriented when learning the ropes. Just because you ended up winning does not necessarily mean you played the hand right.
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#16
05-28-2007, 01:36 AM
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Re: 1/2, thanks for the turn free card, miss, then what?
Im not learning the ropes, and Im not being results oriented. Youre likely correct that the raise is not profitable in the long run. My reads indicated that neither cutoff or button could call (given the scary river card) and I had enough doubt that UTG would bet If he had only a pair of aces that I decided to try a raise. Again I almost auto folded.
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