50NL: KK against nit

[yeesh]

villain is 15/10 over 75 hands. I am playing tight.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $18.20
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $50.00</font>
UTG: $60.45
CO: $50.00
BTN: $118.15

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, UTG calls $6.00, SB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($18) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $9.00</font>, UTG calls $9.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($36) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $25.00</font>, Hero?

[TheRenaissance]

There are roughly two kinds of nit:
Mr Miner
and
Mr I Have Not Waited All This Time Just to Fold My Premium Hand.

If it is the first, fold.
If it is the second, shove.

[robinmbuk]

The only hand I can see you beating is JJ, but don't know if a nit calls the flop with this... unless he puts you on a missed AK.

I think pf his ranges is AK, TT - AA. He could be slowplaying AA pf by smooth calling your 3 bet.

Since you have K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I guess he hasnt called flop with AK as I think he'd need A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to do this. So, on the flop I narrow his range to TT, QQ, JJ (slightly discounted due to the over card perhaps?), AA(slightly discounted due to no 4 bet pf, perhaps?).

His turn bet tells me he wants to play for stacks, so I think your up against a set of Qs or Ts most of the time, and sometimes AA, so probably a fold against this villian.

[hra146]

Its a tough spot, but vs. a standard nl25 nit there is two things that make it a fold to me.

1) he cant have AKhh, so there is no conceivable semi bluff out there
2) he leaves himself with some pocket change and bets 25$ instead of shoving. Thats a huge read that fits to sooo many people, and even I myself find myself doing it sometimes. You unconciously dont want to chase the opponent away. He wants a call here badly, and we never aim to please.

now that I think about it: 3) Even though there are hands in his range that we beat, those hands never bet 25$ into this pot. Hands like AQ (if he calls pf with that) are sure glad to check this behind.

AQhh (now that I think about it) is really the only thing that we beat and could possibly take this line. Hoping to either be a slight dog when called, freerolling or dominating. (and no, he wont think about the fact that you wouldnt do this pf with KQ)

[creamfillin]

How would you play this if the flop was instead T85 twotone? Would you still check the turn?

[bozzer]

I think a big question in this hand is, does he think you're squeezing?

Regardless, I'd prefer to see a larger cb on the flop. Around 2/3 would be good I think.

It's a nasty flop though.

Say he's called your RR with TT+,AK: you're now behind TT,QQ,AA, splitting with 1 combo of kings, and ahead of AK,JJ. I'd say AhKh, AcKc give you action on the turn but you hold the Kc and Kh, so he can't have those. He might give you action with {JJ,AKo} maybe 50% of the time??

Just looking at that I'd say you're around a 33-66 dog. A stove of my analysis gives:

Board: Th Qc 8h 3c

Hand 0: 37.338% { KcKh }
Hand 1: 62.662% { QQ+, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, AcKc, AhKh, AsKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKs }

weee, not a bad estimate.

The only thing is, this all changes if he thinks you might be weak.

Say he calls with 99+,AQo+,AJs+ - then we have a different story, especially since you cb weak and check the turn. He might be thinking my JJ,AQ is good, I can take a stab with AK, etc. It gets hard to analyse. I do think if you want to play (and you might only be a 40-60 dog vs his turn betting range), you need to CRAI.

[hra146]

as we worked out before villain cannot hold the Kh.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
as we worked out before villain cannot hold the Kh.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeh i said that. i thought stove removed cards you hold from the analysis though?

[Upgrade_U]

too small bet on flop and checking on turn makes it really ez for him to fire so you're forced to fold there most of the time IMO

[yeesh]

[ QUOTE ]
How would you play this if the flop was instead T85 twotone? Would you still check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would bet the turn in this case, seeing that I now beat 2 overpairs and only lose to 1. I'm hoping that he calls down with JJ-QQ.