The Well: King Yao

[dankhank]

have you gotten interested at all in emerging sports like UFC, or do you regularly bet any other non-traditional sports? if so what do you think about UFC's future growth potential compared to boxing, and the big four sports here in the united states?

[King Yao]

"have you gotten interested at all in emerging sports like UFC, or do you regularly bet any other non-traditional sports? if so what do you think about UFC's future growth potential compared to boxing, and the big four sports here in the united states? "

Generally, my sports interests are in football, baseball and basketball (in that order). Once in a while I'll look at other sports, but the simple fact is that other sports don't interest me much from a fan-perspective. I was never a fan of boxing, and probably will never be a fan of UFC (I don't think I've even watched a match, except possibly for a highlight or two here and there). I imagine that like in all sports if it is getting popular that smart guys could find some good opportunities. So...my answer is simply that I am ignorant about UFC, betting-wise or business-wise.

[easternbloc]

do you worry at all about not being able to get as much action after you publish a book?

[King Yao]

"do you worry at all about not being able to get as much action after you publish a book? "

I thought about that before writing the book. I rarely have to give up an ID in Vegas, so that's not an issue. In offshore books, I'm winding down my action to a fraction of what it used to be. So in the end, those issues didn't matter as much to me as they would have just a year ago. If nothing had changed from a year ago, I probably wouldn't have written the book.

[bot1478]

Is this well still open? let me shout down and see.

I am intriggued by ML versus points. as I shop for lines,(basketball playoffs in particular) I often much more variation in th eML even when the Points line is pretty much stable. It seems there must be a +EV opportunity here. Is there a correlation between ML and points line available? And whats your thoughts on this as a +EV opportunity?

[King Yao]

"I am intriggued by ML versus points. as I shop for lines,(basketball playoffs in particular) I often much more variation in th eML even when the Points line is pretty much stable. It seems there must be a +EV opportunity here. Is there a correlation between ML and points line available? And whats your thoughts on this as a +EV opportunity? "

There should be a direct relationship between the pointspread and the money line. It may fluctuate based on the total though. For example, a high total game may have a relatively lower money line given the same pointspread as a low total game.

There are positive EV opportunities in ML vs pointspread. A prominent example is during the Super Bowl. The money line and the pointspread often doesn't line up correctly. The people betting on the underdog in the SB are more likely to bet on the moneyline than the people betting on the favorite. So the relationship gets skewed. During regular season games, it is less so, but I imagine there are opportunities here and there.

[smbruin22]

yao/performity, thanks for a fantastic thread!! very informative and i have a few questions.... yao's poker book is outstanding and i look forward to same from the sports book.... good comedy from that guy who interned at susq too.

here are a few questions:

do you find that college football and basketball can be much more profitable than NFL if someone puts in huge work or subscribes to good services? thinking somewhat focussing on mid-majors etc.

do you think situational plays like NBA teams on back-to-backs or coming home after long road trip have become efficient? my guess is yes.

in baseball, how much are you looking at pitching matchups?..

thanks again for a great thread!!!

[King Yao]

"do you find that college football and basketball can be much more profitable than NFL if someone puts in huge work or subscribes to good services? thinking somewhat focussing on mid-majors etc."

college football and basektball lines move a lot more than NFL and NBA lines. That tells me the opening lines are less efficient, which means there are opportunities for guys who know their college sports. There won't be as many derivative type of bets, and the limits won't be as high, but for the guy that enjoys following college sports (and has talent of course), I think it can be worthwhile. Profitability is tough to compare because of the difference in limits. The good college handicapper probably can perform at a higher ROI than the good NFL handicapper, but the good NFL handicapper may be able to make more money due to being able to bet bigger.

"do you think situational plays like NBA teams on back-to-backs or coming home after long road trip have become efficient? my guess is yes."

I don't handicap the NBA, and I rarely follow it during the regular season. When I did look into those aspects that you mentioned about 3 years ago, it did seem that the market had already adjusted for them back then. But because I don't follow it on a regular basis, if things have changed, I wouldn't know.

"in baseball, how much are you looking at pitching matchups?.. "

Pitching is 90% of the game. The other half is hitting. Aha, just kidding, a little Yogi Berraism. Seriously, pitching is crucial. The hitting lineups for the most part stay constant, with the possible exceptions of lefty/righty splits or a star player resting (Bonds on a day game after a night game for example). But the quality of the starting pitchers on the same team can vary a lot. I don't think a handicapper would go that far wrong by using power ratings in baseball to describe hitters...but he would be far off if he did that for pitchers on a team-by-team basis. Pitchers need to be separated on a pitcher-by-pitcher basis.

[smbruin22]

yao, great answers! thank you!

[bot1478]

Can we keep King Yao down in that well permanently?