A Method to Compute Required Folds For Breakeven Draw Pushing (Long)

[PBJaxx]

Good post. <3 Grunch

[kaioukenx]

That's a really interesting way of looking at fold equity calculations. Thanks for the post

[Kowalski]

Good stuff, Thanks Grunch

[BGnight]

I have no idea how you got these numbers or what they are representing. Then again I'm not that smart:
+140 - 125 - 125 + ...

+4.5 - 4 - 4 + ...

+4.5 - 4 - 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1
I suck at math and could never use this at the table, but cool post even though I understood about 1/3 of it [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Don't bother explaining. Math gives me a headache.

[Wolfram]

We should also consider that when we fold in situations where we estimate our edge is non-negative but very small, we avoid the risk of losing a lot of EV when our estimate is wrong.

This is an added bonus to decreasing the swings.

[Hellmouth]

Can you elaborate on how you got the $140 when you win? The $125 when you lose twice seems to be the amount you are risking that is not in the pot by pushing.

Greg

[Mike MacIntosh]

NH! STICKY THIS!

[Tickner]

Another thing, too, is that this type of calculation assumes that we will win 100% of the time we hit one of our 8 outs and that we will lose 100% of the time otherwise.

I wonder how much of an impact this actually has on our figures. I'm going to guestimate 2-3% but that's coming from experience and my knowledge alone and isn't proven at all. How would we go about adding these gray areas to our calculations? They may actually make what we think is a small 0.5BB edge into a slightly -EV play.

[HBomb]

Grunch, you are too smart for your own good.

Harvard mathematics dean maybe in your future?

Better yet, have you ever said anything dumb on this forum?

[HBomb]

[ QUOTE ]
Another thing, too, is that this type of calculation assumes that we will win 100% of the time we hit one of our 8 outs and that we will lose 100% of the time otherwise.

I wonder how much of an impact this actually has on our figures. I'm going to guestimate 2-3% but that's coming from experience and my knowledge alone and isn't proven at all. How would we go about adding these gray areas to our calculations? They may actually make what we think is a small 0.5BB edge into a slightly -EV play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tickner, grey areas are for nits like you and me, just push like the master says so.