Button raises, SB calls, Q9s in BB

[NoahSD]

Yeah. I should probably think about stuff like that more.

[hamnegger]

i consider q 9 a trouble hand ill open w it in some spots but id fold most times here. its just strong enough to go for a squeeze play though. if i have been playing or viewed as tight id shove here else fold

[Crispy]

ALL YOU CAN EAT BABY! No but seriously, push. If the SB had around your stack or maybe just a little larger than I would fold. But since he has so many chips, his range of calling widens up pretty considerably making this push profitable.

[betgo]

I figure if I can isolate, I am getting about 1.37-1, putting in 42% of the money.

If I am against a top 15% hand if called, I am 36% for an average loss of 4500. If I steal the pot preflop, I gain 15000. So the push is profitable in cEV if I take the pot 25% of the time.

Button could be raising a high percentage of hands, so I may be a little better than 36% if called. However, there is some chance SB is trapping.

At this stage approaching the final table, gambling may be cEV-, which might be enough to make the push $EV-. Obviously, if I win, I build a big stack, so the effect on $EV may be close.

I know people don't like a flat call, but in this situation, in the BB with pot odds, that might be the best play.

In actuality, button pushed over top with AQo and it held up. It was kind of bad luck I was dominated, rather than against AK or AJ. Also, a lot of times no one has anything better than Ax, Kx, or an underpair, so if I am called, I am only slightly behind, and probably ahead of pot odds.

[Nate.]

I hate to be smug or dismissive, but this is sort of ridiculous to ask.

-Button's tendencies are an obvious cornerstone of this hand. We have some PT stats, but really this is a matter of a general read (which will include postflop observation, of which OP has none) and tempo/dynamic/how-Hero-is-himself-viewed characteristics. It's all subject to flux and whim and timing and gut.

-Similar comments apply to the small blind.

-Again, apologies for any haughty tone here, but this sort of post might be a good example of what isn't HSMTT. It's like asking what to open the cutoff with. Preflop equity comes from folding equity + equity plus called; those equities themselves come from ranges + what they do with what parts of those ranges.

Preflop decisions can be very interesting, but I'm not seeing what's so notable here. So much of the skill in these high-blind MTT situations is reading the player and the effects recent events have on him, and the adjustments and meta-adjustments, etc.

--Nate

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IMO, lots of conditions have to be close to perfect to risk tournment life on a shove here.

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IMO, anyone who uses the phrase "risking your tournament life" should not be allowed to post in this forum.

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Think of a better phrase and I'll use it. The point is that it's a very important decision for this tournament and it only takes 1 bad read. So IMO, if you're a little unsure about a shove here then it's probably better to fold... which is what I would do here.

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As far as the rest of your post... if button has been tight from LP you instafold... but if button has been making a standard raise frequently, you instafold as well? WTF?

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Whoops, I mis-read something. I thought that the Button raised a tad less than 2.5x, not 3. You're right, WTF? I obviously got posts confused.
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Where is the logic behind your thought process? You seem to be okay at assessing that, yes, the particular players on button and SB matter a lot, but you don't seem to know how to use that information to reach a conclusion about how to play the hand.

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My point was, and is, that the decision is important enough that you need enough information to shove here. (And actually, I say things like that to remind myself of this-because when I play online I often shove based on instinct and don't take the time to really think things through.)

I want to know from what position the Button has been raising 12% of his hands. If he's been raising from all over the table then I insta-fold.

If he's been raising often from LP I can put him on a wider range, say top 25% of hands, then in which case I may lean towards a shove given my tight image at the table so far.

I thought bet sizes were imporant before (becuase I thought it was a 2.5ish raise) but the button has probably been making a standard 3xbb raise every time.