Can Derek Jeter catch Pete Rose in hits?

[Gregatron]

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Wow, the highest guy under 30 in the active hits leaderboard is Adrian Beltre!?

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really? that's weird.

only 1300 hits.
Only reason he does even half-decently for this is that he made it to the big-leagues at only 19.
He probably also has the most games played of any major-leaguer under 30.
He has been a mostly injury-free, everyday player for all 9 full seasons. Only 2 full seasons below 150 games and those were 126 and 138.

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Yeah, but we need some perspective. Albert is only 27 and has 1200. (I don't see him passing Rose or anything.)

EDIT: Beltre is 28, so while Albert is still ahead proportionally, it's not by much.

[RedBean]

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I wonder. If we put Rose in at various points in his career what his chances would be?

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Let's see what the chances the toy gives Rose throughout his career of reaching 4,256 hits.

At age 24, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 27, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 30, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 33, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 36, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 39, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.
At age 40, the toy gives Rose a 0% chance.

Not until age 41 does the toy ever assign Rose *any* chance, when it puts him at a 13.4% chance to reach 4,256.

This, of course, only once he already had amassed 3,869 hits.

[SuperUberBob]

I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career. So, he easily passes 3K but doesn't break 4K.

[Triumph36]

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I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career. So, he easily passes 3K but doesn't break 4K.

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on tonight's Yankees broadcast, it was mentioned that Jeter would like to play until he is 43.

[andyfox]

"I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career."

On what do you base these thoughts? Not saying you're wrong, just wondering. He's making an awful lot of money, one would think he'd want to play as long as possible.

[Bremen]

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"I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career."

On what do you base these thoughts? Not saying you're wrong, just wondering. He's making an awful lot of money, one would think he'd want to play as long as possible.

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The yanks won't keep him around for nostalgia once he's past his prime. So this really depends on whether he'd play for another team...

[dabluebery]

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0% to reach 4256? Why? That seems weird.
There has to be SOME chance he can do it.

Jeter is a better athlete than Rose.
Better conditioning and nutrition of the type that have helped keep guys like Clemens and Julio Franco around so long don't make it completely impossible for a guy like Jeter to still be able to perform okay after 40.

If he's at 3800 hits or so by 40 I think the Yankees actually could continue to let him play even if a slight liability just to have their guy break the all-time hits record.

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Dig up the formula to understand why it says 0%. The favorite toy operates under the assumption that a player will play half the number of years between their current age and the age of 42. For Jeter, this gives him 4.5 years left. You'd agree that it's pretty close to 0%, if not 0%, that he'd do it by the time he's 42. If you change the upper bound to something like 43 or 44, to reflect the capabilities of modern athletes who are playing longer, it would creep up into possible, I'd bet. The toy is a very dirty approximation, meant to be more fun than reliable.

[Triumph36]

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"I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career."

On what do you base these thoughts? Not saying you're wrong, just wondering. He's making an awful lot of money, one would think he'd want to play as long as possible.

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The yanks won't keep him around for nostalgia once he's past his prime. So this really depends on whether he'd play for another team...

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O RLY? They certainly did with Bernie Williams for at least one year - and Derek Jeter is way ahead of Bernie in terms of popularity, and probably figures to be better than Bernie was at that point.

Jeter will have to move to a different position, though.

[DrewDevil]

I don't know, doesn't Jeter like to go out clubbing and partying? I read somewhere that Rose had no interests other than baseball (and apparently gambling), that he would never go out at night because he was always working on his swing or hitting at the cage. Or am I thinking of Ted Williams? Anyway, the point is that party animals have a much lower chance of playing well into their 40s. Ryan, Clemens, etc., those guys were all fitness freaks/non-partyers, AFAIK.

Still, I'm surprised that Jeter's current totals actually make this an interesting question.

[NeedATimeMachine]

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I don't think Jeter plays until he's 40. I also don't think he maintains the same level of consistency that he has earlier in his career. So, he easily passes 3K but doesn't break 4K.

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on tonight's Yankees broadcast, it was mentioned that Jeter would like to play until he is 43.

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yea i caught that too and if he stays healthy till he's 43, i think he'll be awfully close to pete rose's record