Any two cards really mean any two cards?

[Xanthro]

[ QUOTE ]
At a certain point your stack gets to a size where you need to push ATC and if he calls then you are probably a 60/40.. just go for it. Folding destroys your stack, at 400/800 you fold like 2 or 3 hands and its basically game over.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we really 60/40 with 23o? The most likely result is a loss, followed by a chopped pot, winning comes in third.

23o is likely to have to play the board.

I completely agree about the folding 2-3 hands at this level means you're dead, which is why having such horrible hands in a row when short hurt so much.

[Kevin8423]

23o is like 35% against AKs and any other non PP, I think you have enough FE to make this shove considering folding will devastate your stack at these blinds.

[holy32]

Um... I ran every scenario through sngwiz. That's how I got those results. Do you think the program is wrong there ? (serious question)

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
Um... I ran every scenario through sngwiz. That's how I got those results. Do you think the program is wrong there ? (serious question)

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't it not take into account the amount of chips you will have in future hands and like highly likely shove when villain in on SB? It is only factoring in the EV of this current hand and not those to follow. Shoving 23o I think is less -EV than waiting for something else so thats why you make the shove.

[holy32]

Hmm, there's been quite some discussion about the "ICM calcs can only make suggestions on the current hand and not on subsequent ones".
Is this a known fact or are we only asuming this ?

I mean, based on your decision on a current hand you will have a certain EV. Okay, say you fold. Then you will start the next hand with exactly that EV (EV-fold in the previous hand that is). Now lets say you push. Based on calling ranges and tons of other stuff sngwiz calculates what the average EV is that will result out of this move. Which is also the EV (figurativly speaking) that you will start the next hand with. So if EVfold is more than EVpush, folding must be correct, no matter what happens in later hands.

QED ?

fwiw I was truly suprised when it told me to fold 32o from the SB.

[Xanthro]

[ QUOTE ]
Um... I ran every scenario through sngwiz. That's how I got those results. Do you think the program is wrong there ? (serious question)

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't doubt the program is wrong here. I'm at work, so don't have access to my poker programs, and this happened last night and when I had some down time, thought I'd post them.

I hadn't run the hands to check them yet. I was going to this evening, but honestly the information gained on this board is more valuable then simply checking sngwiz.

[fluorescenthippo]

[ QUOTE ]
Any two cards really mean any two cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, yes it does. hope this helps!!