50 NL KK turn bet question

[prodonkey]

Villain is 15/10/1.5

I've been running into this situation a lot.. seems like it should be kinda standard. But the situations are always different. The guy is pretty nitty, so when he calls the flop bet I know he has some kind of hand. I don't think he calls preflop with KJ, or QT so the straight draw.. and 2 pair are not part of his range. I have a feeling that normally if I bet this turn and am willing to play for stacks I'm going to be behind when all the money goes in. Is bet/folding the turn a good idea? I'm not sure how frisky he'd get with QK or AQ here, he could very well check raise AQ but that's really the only hand in his range that I'm ahead of. Is the pot control check on the turn then call on the river good?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $64.95
BB: $52.20
UTG: $66.80
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $102.80</font>
BTN: $9.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K (5 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, BTN calls $2.50, SB calls $2.25, BB folds, UTG calls $2.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($10.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T (4 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $6.00, UTG folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($22.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($22.50) 4 (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $12.00</font>, Hero calls $12.00

Pot Size: $46.50 ($2.30 Rake)

[Gullanian]

Bet turn. You want more money.

[rivhawk02]

I dont really mind the pot control against a tight opponent on the turn. I dont think you'd get 3 streets of value versus a hand that you beat in a multiway pot against a tight opponent who has a one pair hand such as KQ or AQ.

[centja1]

i like it. KJ and J9 are very likely the only hands that have more than 5 outs against us and it might let a tight opponent get off of KQ or QJ. Not insignificantly, we have two of the cards J9 needs for a straight and we may either induce the busted draw to bluff or call our river bet if it pairs.

[doppelganger]

We can discount KJ heavily since we hold 2 of the kings, and 15/10 guys don't call J9 from the SB very often, if at all.

I think villains most likely holding is AQ, with AT, QT, AJ, TT-JJ possible but less likely.

We are almost certainly ahead on the turn and I'm betting about $14. We can check the river if we're that worried about being slowplayed.

[ciro bonano]

I also find this a difficult situation, pot control vs getting maximum value.

Do you have some reliable WTSD% number? Maybe that will indicate how often he takes some TP hand to showdown?

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet turn. You want more money.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much money can you really get out of a nit with a one-pair hand?

Also, OP: flop c-bet is a little small, isn't it? I usually bet about 75-80% of the pot. Do you have a reason for betting smaller?

[eigenvalue]

You played that hand very well! Against a calling station, you have to bet all 3 streets. Against a TAG, checking the turn from behind and inducing bluffs or bets from hands like AQ or KQ is a reasonable line. It was very good, too, to not reraise the river, because Villain would call this only with hands that beat one pair.

Once again, well played!

[ontiltsoon]

I like it! Maybe I would have bet a bit more on the flop maybe 8$. But I think it looks fine vs a non calling station.

[iamVillaiNmo]

I would like a turn bet unless you think they would value-bluff the river. I don't think they show with air here but your probably ahead.