But I hit my gutshot

[ikestoys]

Villain is an nit most of the time, but he opens up his game shorthanded and against me.

My image is terrible as uusual ~35/30

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $10/$20
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1920
UTG+1: $366.83
ikestoys: $5332
Button: $4578
SB: $5125
BB: $4824

Pre-flop: (6 players) ikestoys is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">ikestoys raises to $70</font>, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($170, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">ikestoys bets $135</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($440, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">ikestoys bets $295</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $675</font>

[dachord]

If my math is correct, there is $1380 in the pot and you need $480 to call. The pot odds are (barely) there. So, you called the villian (button) a nit who has opened up his game which makes you wonder what his range is. I'd put him on an Axh and fold.

[oyvindgee]

[ QUOTE ]
If my math is correct, there is $1380 in the pot and you need $480 to call. The pot odds are (barely) there. So, you called the villian (button) a nit who has opened up his game which makes you wonder what his range is. I'd put him on an Axh and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot odds are barely there? For what?

[True]

id fold a straight if my opp had Axh too

TJ just got there and so did hearts, most nits dont shove here with weak hands. I think best case scenario is like AhQ but more than likely he has a straight or a flush.

[Scipio]

I would say it´s a fold.
If he has to 50% a FD/Straight and to 50% a drawing hand ( FD/Set) then you don´t have a +EV call.

[ikestoys]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say it´s a fold.
If he has to 50% a FD/Straight and to 50% a drawing hand ( FD/Set) then you don´t have a +EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm no? or explain?

[Scipio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would say it´s a fold.
If he has to 50% a FD/Straight and to 50% a drawing hand ( FD/Set) then you don´t have a +EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm no? or explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, if i think again ... my assumption was stupid.
If he bluffs with 50% on the River with worse hands than it is perhaps true(close) but he never will bluff to 50% with worse hands...

My thought was :
On a heart River you are dead.
The other 80% he will bet all of his better hands and to 50% he bluffs with worse hands so he bets to 0.8*0.5+0.8*0.5*0.5 = 60% and you can´t call this bet.
So you win only to 0.8*0.5*0.50* = 0,20% the pot.

[king_of_drafts]

call chekc riv

[Overfloater]

FLUSH BEATS STRAIGHT DUMMY