Terrorism

[ctj]

[ QUOTE ]
Caught a talk by a retired JPL scientist recently. One of his specialties was asteroids and assessing the Earth-impact risks of same. This lead him to looking at various other risks and how they compared. What he found lead him to the same conclusions you've made (and have been known to the insurance industry for quite some time): the risk from unlikely events is generally greatly exaggerated.


RISKS OF DEATH (lifetime odds, US residents, unless otherwise noted)

Asteroid impact risks are for currently remaining undiscovered asteroids.

Cause of Death One in:

Accidents (all kinds)..........................36
Motor vehicle accident.......................90
Suicide........................................120
Homicide......................................185
Falls...........................................25 0
Assault by firearm...........................325
Terrorism (Middle East)....................1,000
Fire or Smoke...............................1,100
Firearms accident...........................2,500
Natural forces (storms etc.)............3,400
Electrocution...............................5,000
Drowning....................................9,000
Flood........................................27,00 0
Airplane crash.............................30,000
Lightning strike...........................43,000
Tornado....................................46,000
Legal execution............................60,000
Terrorism (incl. 9/11).....................80,000
Venomous bite or sting..................100,000
Tsunami (worldwide)......................100,000
Hurricane...................................110,00 0
Earthquakes...............................130,000
Fireworks accident........................600,000
Asteroid impact (all sizes)...............750,000
Terrorism (excl. 9/11)..................1,100,000
Amusement park rides....................1,100,000
Asteroid impact (global)................1,500,000
Driving to a local event (once).........1,500,000
Food poisoning by botulism..............3,000,000
Regional impact (tsunami)...............3,200,000
Local Impact (Tunguska).................4,000,000
Impact mass extinction (comets).........8,000,000
Shark attack................................8,000,000
Drinking tap water.........................10,000,000

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems to be only the risk of 'accidental' death - it doesn't include the odds of death by disease (heart attack, stroke, cancer, HIV, etc.

Also, it's not clear why the 'terrorist' odds should exclude 9/11 (does he think it can't happen again?); I'd guess that more people have been killed by terrorists than by amusement part rides in recent years.

[arahant]

[ QUOTE ]
arhant -- why do you hate freedom?

[/ QUOTE ]
The genius of this is that it's funny whether or not you were serious.

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I think most people would be surprised to learn that they're more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by one of their fellow super-monkeys.

[/ QUOTE ] That's because most people aren't.

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
And hence the need to kill the terrorists before they acquire the means, as they clearly have the intent and desire to do so. Plus prevention of conventional attacks on our homeland (and yours) also requires that we confront them.

[/ QUOTE ] I assume you are fine with them using the same reasoning to recruit people to try to kill you?

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And hence the need to kill the terrorists before they acquire the means, as they clearly have the intent and desire to do so. Plus prevention of conventional attacks on our homeland (and yours) also requires that we confront them.

[/ QUOTE ] I assume you are fine with them using the same reasoning to recruit people to try to kill you?

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll say yes, and say we'll just see who executes our plan better, but then he will turn around and try to claim absolute morality and the moral high ground. Its all very confusing. Its wrong when they do it, and just when we do it, that I'm sure of, its just the details I'm trying to work out.

Is it because they actually ARE trying to kill us all and we aren't, but in their minds we are?

[Insp. Clue!So?]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I think most people would be surprised to learn that they're more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by one of their fellow super-monkeys.

[/ QUOTE ] That's because most people aren't.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

2002 homicide rate (US, DOJ statistics): 6.1/100,000

From Encarta:

"In the United States, suicide ranks in the top ten causes of death, accounting for about 1.5 percent of all deaths. The annual number of suicides has averaged about 30,000 since the late 1980s and has consistently exceeded the annual number of homicides. The suicide rate (number of suicide deaths per 100,000 people) in the United States has remained relatively stable since the 1950s, ranging between 10 and 13 per 100,000 each year."

[wtfsvi]

I don't dispute that. But the statement "most people are more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by another person" does not follow from those statistics.