50 NL- turned NFD in RR pot

[rockusteady]

villain hasn't been that out of hand. standard pf raises and standard cbets. that sort of thing.

fish limps. villain raises to 2.5 from BTN, Hero (BB) raises to 7.5 with AQ of spades. fish folds, villain calls.

Ks 9c 5h
Hero bets 9, villain calls.
4 s.

pot is 34ish, Hero has 50 behind and villain covers.

hero??

[Waingro]

I think you are smoked. I don´t see what hands he calls the flop with and folds to a second barrel, unless you have some serious metagame going on. Check and hope he bets something small. Sucks but there you have it.

[RunDownHouse]

Do you think he'll smell a blocking bet for what it is and raise you with a relatively wide range? I have to agree that I don't know what he's going to check behind here. Maybe AK wanting to control pot size and not being worried about the backdoor draw? Other than that, once he calls the flop, he's hit and I don't see him passing up on value from your QQ or whatever.

[rockusteady]

with stack sizes- any play is awkward, i think.

if we both had 70+ i would probably c/r AI and feel pretty comfortable about it.

does anyone else feel like c/f is just too weak?

[cooker3]

check call or check fold depending on bet size

[rockusteady]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are smoked. I don´t see what hands he calls the flop with and folds to a second barrel.

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ, JJ, TT, and (maybe) KQ-K10.

and i think these are a big part of his range

[robert jordan]

[ QUOTE ]
with stack sizes- any play is awkward, i think.

if we both had 70+ i would probably c/r AI and feel pretty comfortable about it.

does anyone else feel like c/f is just too weak?


[/ QUOTE ]


well.. you have a ~1/5 chance of hittin your hand.. so how often you think you can get value from this? Its alluring to try to draw to that nut flush.. but might turn out being -ev if he looks you up too much here.



EDIT:

I didn't take into consideration the other A being a possible out.. so best case would be 12/47= 1/4 instead of 9/47..

Makes it a little more juicy to act on.. but still might be -ev

[rockusteady]

robert- obv if we get called a high % of the time, this play is pretty terrible.

but I would like to hear discussion on villain's range. A turn pot size bet (or shove) looks very strong and the value from its FE is pretty high, IMO.

any body like shoving the turn instead of potting it?

the better the player is the more likely I am to bet here. But I havent had a ton of experience at 50 nl (in a while) so maybe this kind of move isn't as profitable as it could be higher up.

For the record, I'm not married to the idea of betting this turn. In the actual hand I checked and got to see a free river.

But I'd still like to hear discussion on the merits of both betting and checking because I don't think its a clear cut case either way.

[corsakh]

Problem is, its a K high flop. Not A, Q or J, but K high.

What it means is there are two basic scenarios:

a) The player is a fish and calling you with KJ regardless, so the turn push / pot bet is a spew, however you can easily get away with a block bet.

b) The player is solid, in which case his preflop range to cold calling a 3bet is very tight. Given the texture of the flop, good SCs are out of his range. He also probably realizes that the flop is good for most of your holdings, and unless there was an extensive history of light 3betting between you two or at least an ace on the flop, it is less likely he is trying to float you with a worse hand here. So I wouldnt be surprised to know you have less than 9 outs here and 0 FE.

[ama0330]

Check fold, or check call a bet which offers you the right odds to draw to the flush (4:1 ish)

You have no FE and your hand is bust.