#21
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Re: Terrorism
[ QUOTE ]
Caught a talk by a retired JPL scientist recently. One of his specialties was asteroids and assessing the Earth-impact risks of same. This lead him to looking at various other risks and how they compared. What he found lead him to the same conclusions you've made (and have been known to the insurance industry for quite some time): the risk from unlikely events is generally greatly exaggerated. RISKS OF DEATH (lifetime odds, US residents, unless otherwise noted) Asteroid impact risks are for currently remaining undiscovered asteroids. Cause of Death One in: Accidents (all kinds)..........................36 Motor vehicle accident.......................90 Suicide........................................120 Homicide......................................185 Falls...........................................25 0 Assault by firearm...........................325 Terrorism (Middle East)....................1,000 Fire or Smoke...............................1,100 Firearms accident...........................2,500 Natural forces (storms etc.)............3,400 Electrocution...............................5,000 Drowning....................................9,000 Flood........................................27,00 0 Airplane crash.............................30,000 Lightning strike...........................43,000 Tornado....................................46,000 Legal execution............................60,000 Terrorism (incl. 9/11).....................80,000 Venomous bite or sting..................100,000 Tsunami (worldwide)......................100,000 Hurricane...................................110,00 0 Earthquakes...............................130,000 Fireworks accident........................600,000 Asteroid impact (all sizes)...............750,000 Terrorism (excl. 9/11)..................1,100,000 Amusement park rides....................1,100,000 Asteroid impact (global)................1,500,000 Driving to a local event (once).........1,500,000 Food poisoning by botulism..............3,000,000 Regional impact (tsunami)...............3,200,000 Local Impact (Tunguska).................4,000,000 Impact mass extinction (comets).........8,000,000 Shark attack................................8,000,000 Drinking tap water.........................10,000,000 [/ QUOTE ] This seems to be only the risk of 'accidental' death - it doesn't include the odds of death by disease (heart attack, stroke, cancer, HIV, etc. Also, it's not clear why the 'terrorist' odds should exclude 9/11 (does he think it can't happen again?); I'd guess that more people have been killed by terrorists than by amusement part rides in recent years. |
#22
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Re: Terrorism
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arhant -- why do you hate freedom? [/ QUOTE ] The genius of this is that it's funny whether or not you were serious. |
#23
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Re: Terrorism
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Also, I think most people would be surprised to learn that they're more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by one of their fellow super-monkeys. [/ QUOTE ] That's because most people aren't. |
#24
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Re: Terrorism
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And hence the need to kill the terrorists before they acquire the means, as they clearly have the intent and desire to do so. Plus prevention of conventional attacks on our homeland (and yours) also requires that we confront them. [/ QUOTE ] I assume you are fine with them using the same reasoning to recruit people to try to kill you? |
#25
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Re: Terrorism
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And hence the need to kill the terrorists before they acquire the means, as they clearly have the intent and desire to do so. Plus prevention of conventional attacks on our homeland (and yours) also requires that we confront them. [/ QUOTE ] I assume you are fine with them using the same reasoning to recruit people to try to kill you? [/ QUOTE ] He'll say yes, and say we'll just see who executes our plan better, but then he will turn around and try to claim absolute morality and the moral high ground. Its all very confusing. Its wrong when they do it, and just when we do it, that I'm sure of, its just the details I'm trying to work out. Is it because they actually ARE trying to kill us all and we aren't, but in their minds we are? |
#26
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Re: Terrorism
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[ QUOTE ] Also, I think most people would be surprised to learn that they're more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by one of their fellow super-monkeys. [/ QUOTE ] That's because most people aren't. [/ QUOTE ] ? 2002 homicide rate (US, DOJ statistics): 6.1/100,000 From Encarta: "In the United States, suicide ranks in the top ten causes of death, accounting for about 1.5 percent of all deaths. The annual number of suicides has averaged about 30,000 since the late 1980s and has consistently exceeded the annual number of homicides. The suicide rate (number of suicide deaths per 100,000 people) in the United States has remained relatively stable since the 1950s, ranging between 10 and 13 per 100,000 each year." |
#27
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Re: Terrorism
I don't dispute that. But the statement "most people are more likely to kill themselves than to be intentionally killed by another person" does not follow from those statistics.
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