Stop, (blind) thief!

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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What does everyone think about the turn check?

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I think your turn check was excellent. The BB is extremely likely to have a pair at this point and hes not folding IMO. Plus getting check/raised in this spot would suck and you get to avoid that negative event.

[private joker]

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What does everyone think about the turn check?

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I think your turn check was excellent. The BB is extremely likely to have a pair at this point and hes not folding IMO. Plus getting check/raised in this spot would suck and you get to avoid that negative event.

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So if you think he has a pair but you're betting this river 100% of the time, doesn't that seem inconsistent? His check looks like a defensive one since any Q makes a straight and he may want to see a cheap showdown for 1BB if he has something. Are you saying I can represent a Q or K here and force him off a J, T, or 9?

[cgrohman]

He calls you with a pair 10 or higher. He might call you with the 9. Everything else you beat anyway.

[sternroolz]

I love a bet here in Vegas $15-30. I hate it at Commerce.

Your bet is bluff only, but I don't think the average Commerce player here...or even the better than average ones...are ever folding a pair here and you will win against anything else. Your bet just looks way to much like a bs bluff to the average Commerce donk. The funny thing is, the average Commerce donk will not view you any different than any other player, particularly in light of the previously played hand. And enough Commerce players bluff so often that the average donk is looking you up here with just about anything that can beat you. I guess the only thing you fold out here is another ace, but villian has given us no indication whatsoever he has an ace.

Vegas though...this has a really high chance of success. The other players REALLY like to give raisers credit for AQ/AK.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

"So if you think he has a pair but you're betting this river 100% of the time, doesn't that seem inconsistent?"

Not at all. I know he has a pair. Im betting the river to get him to fold a pair. Assuming hes a player trying to play well I believe this river bet will get him to fold a hand like Jx,Tx,9x,4x or some lower pocket pair often enough to make this bluff a money maker. Some of these folds I'm going after may sound too optimistic but ive seen many "good" live players make a superfold in this spot with Jx.

Some caveats:

Online I would rarely try this bluff.
Against a loose showdown player I would never make this bluff.
If for some reason I didnt have my usual "He's tight and always has it when he bets the river" image I may not bluff the river in this spot. Obviously If I had recently been caught in some bluffs I will be much less likely to bet this river. But generally speaking, given my image when I play live it is usually correct for me to bet this river against someone who is trying to play well.

"His check looks like a defensive one since any Q makes a straight and he may want to see a cheap showdown for 1BB if he has something. Are you saying I can represent a Q or K here and force him off a J, T, or 9?"

Dont forget that this guy called from the BB. This means that his range of pairs will be wider. 4x should not be ignored. I would not bluff the river if this guy had called from the SB.

[Smarty]

Check behind.