An "Overpush" hand from earlier this week with ICM math included

[Indiana]

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Here's my prediction. You will be able to make it look very close to neutral with tight overcalling ranges on the blinds. As soon as the blinds start overcalling you with 88 and AJs, it will turn in to an unmitigated disaster.

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Would u call in the SB/BB with 88 though? With 99? With AJ? I wouldn't to a shove and overshove.

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I wouldn't, but I'm a winning player and most people aren't. Assumptions about what I would do in a particular situation don't usually apply to random opponents.

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fair point I don't know what else to add. I mean yah its hard to say what they will do and I often overvalue my opponents abilities at the table. So yah this could get into -EV territory if we have complete donkeys in the blinds. It could also go +EV if we have weak tighties in the blinds which is also a decent possiblity. I mean, I could imagine that some BBs would fold AK here. I personally think it averages out but perhaps I am wrong.

[GotQuads]

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fair point I don't know what else to add. I mean yah its hard to say what they will do and I often overvalue my opponents abilities at the table. So yah this could get into -EV territory if we have complete donkeys in the blinds. It could also go +EV if we have weak tighties in the blinds which is also a decent possiblity. I mean, I could imagine that some BBs would fold AK here. I personally think it averages out but perhaps I am wrong.

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That's why some said it's a clear fold. There's no reason to make plays which are neutral EV and just increase variance.

[Indiana]

Co shoves with 22+,A2+,K5s+,Q9s+,J9s+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo
***I always assume that only one of the blinds will call as the probability of them both calling is ~ nil and it makes the math a little easier. i also do

not assume linearity of cEV with $EV which makes the math a little more tedious (but not much).

Part 1) Equity when we fold

a)Both SB and BB fold. New stacks:

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t1135)
Hero (t2720)
SB (t2075)
BB (t2305)

So here my equity will be = .196


b)SB calls with 55+,A8o+,A6s+,KJs+,KQo.

*SB wins with probability .58394 and then the new stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t2720)
SB (t3210)
BB (t2305)

so my equity is = .202

*SB loses with probability 1-.58394 and then the new stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t1970)
Hero (t2720)
SB (t1240)
BB (t2305)

so my equity is = .196

So the weighted average equity for b) will be .58394*.202 + (1-.58394)*.196 = .1995



c)BB calls with 55+,A8o+,A6s+,KJs+,KQo.

*BB wins with probability .58394 and then the new stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t2720)
SB (t2075)
BB (t3440)

so my equity is = .202


UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t1895)
Hero (t2720)
SB (t2075)
BB (t1545)

so my equity here is .195

So the weighted average equity for c) will be .58394*.202 + (1-.58394)*.195=.1991


So the full weighted equity for a fold by Hero will be a weighted average of .196, .1995, and .1991

I assume that either SB/BB call independently with .104 probability and they both fold so the equity here
should be = .792*.196 + .104*.1995 + .104*.1991=.197 (same as Slim got, which is good)



Part 2)Equity when we shove(overcalls from SB/BB here would be JJ+,AKs,AKo)

a)Both SB and BB fold (weight of .956 here)

Here my hand is .50191 to win against CO.

When I win the stacks are:
UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t3855)
SB (t2075)
BB (t2305)

so my equity here is .259


When I lose the stacks are:

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t2045)
Hero (t1810)
SB (t2075)
BB (t2305)

so my equity here is .139


For a weighted equity of = .50191(.259)+(1-.50191)(.139) = .199


b)SB calls (.022 weight here)

When SB wins(prob=.54502) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t570)
SB (t5360)
BB (t2305)

and our equity is = .055


When I win (prob=.22756) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t5930)
SB (t0)
BB (t2305)

and our equity is = .347

When shorty wins (.22742) then we have to deal with a side pot:

When I win sidepot(prob=.29217) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t2880)
Hero (t3050)
SB (t0)
BB (t2305)

and my equity = .219

When SB wins sidepot (prob=.70783) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t2880)
Hero (570)
SB (t2480)
BB (t2305)

and my equity = .049

so the equity for when shorty wins in total = .29217*.219 + .70783*.049 = .099

So the total equity for part b) must be .54502*.055 + .22756*.347 + .22742*.099 = .1315


c)BB calls (.022 weight here)


When BB wins (prob=.54502) stacks are


UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t265)
SB (t2075)
BB (t5895)

and my equity is = .027


When I win (prob=.22756) stacks are


UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t0)
Hero (t6160)
SB (t2075)
BB (t0)

and my equity is = .354


When shorty wins (prob=.22742) then we have a sidepot:

When I win sidepot(prob=.29217) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t2805)
Hero (t3355)
SB (t2075)
BB (t0)

and my equity is = .235

When BB wins sidepot(prob=.70783) stacks are

UTG (t2685)
UTG+1 (t2580)
CO (t2805)
Hero (t265)
SB (t2075)
BB (t3090)


and my equity is = .023


so the equity for when shorty wins in total = .29217*.235 + .70783*.023 = .085

So the total equity for part c) must be .54502*.027 + .22756*.354 + .22742*.085 = .115


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so the total equity for overpushing is .956*.199 + .022*(.1315) + .022*(.115) =.196


So w/o the linearity assumption it does indeed look to be about neutral(unless i'm tired and made a mistake). I guess we need something like a9s to overshove here??

[Theo_Brixton]

cliff notes anyone?

[Indiana]

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cliff notes anyone?

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It was a close decision. You probably need something like A9s in this hand to feel more confident in your overpush. If we knew our opponents in the blinds a little better it would be easier.

[Slim Pickens]

This looks about like we were expecting. Now what happens when BB is a call-tard and overcalls your push with {55+,ATs+,AJs}?

[Indiana]

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This looks about like we were expecting. Now what happens when BB is a call-tard and overcalls your push with {55+,ATs+,AJs}?

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Then oh noes they takes all myz moniez omg lolz Sure it would make this turn into a fold for sure if that were the case. By the way thanks for your input on this problem Slim.

[Slim Pickens]

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cliff notes anyone?

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It was a break-even play under the absolutely most favorable assumptions about game conditions, and a solid loser under more realistic ones. You probably need something like AQs in this hand to feel more confident in your overpush. If we knew with 100% certainty our opponents in the blinds were huge nits it would be easier.

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This is more like it.

[Indiana]

agree to disagree. what if CO pusher decides that ATC is ok? I think A9s is good to go and I'd have no questions about shoving it here. A7s is neutral on average. Yes there are very unfavorable conditions that may arise, but there are uber-favorable ones that may arise also so its pretty much a moot point.

[Slim Pickens]

Fun with the quote function.

Irieguy
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How is clicking "fold" dangerous?

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BarryLyndon
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If you keep making calls like this, you're going to [censored] hate your results in the long run.

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Irieguy
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This is a super standard fold.

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Indiana
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i'd like to debate this.

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citanul
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i think the blinds are probably too deep for this to be correct, but i'm not 100% sure.

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Jshuttlesworth
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Indy I like that you like to gamble.

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Shillx
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I never assume that people will fold 99+/AK or TT+/AQ+ so I wouldn't shove this.

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Indiana
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agree to disagree.

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Whatevahz, man.