AQ75 Big Blind Defense, final table PLO MTT

[bFunk]

Final table of PLO MTT $11 rebuy
Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t1500/t3000
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t14543
UTG+1: t70549
MP1: t47147
CO: t83718
Button: t49250
SB: t43233
Hero: t47060

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t9000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t27000</font>.

Villain had been sitting on my right for the last two tables and often raising my big blind when it was folded to him in the small blind. The one time I had pot reraised him he folded. Too aggressive?

[chucky]

You have limited the range of hands he can go to the flop with, which is good. The raise was also good because ppl are unwilling to put their chips at risk on the bubble, so you have fairly high fold equity against anything except AAxx, KKxx, and a few rundown hands. If you had called you would have been hoping that he didnt have AKxx if Axx flops.

[henrychinaski]

Personaly I dont like it, as your committing yourself to the pot with a pretty bad hu hand if he comes over the top. I often play bullies like this(in cash games more-so) by flat calling their oop raise and taking it away from them on any scary flop for them/ any flop u do hit.

[chucky]

I would agree if we had an established range for sb's raises, but we dont. Besides trip and flush draw flops, would you push any ace flop, how about a kq2 flop? If we suspect that someone is stealing with crap, but we dont have a good flop and foward hand, isnt it smarter to push the person off. I would cold call with AKxx ss, because that gives you two chances at top pair top kicker. Fold equity from a reraise at this point is pretty high.

[piiop]

It's the final table and everyone has tiny stacks compared to the blinds. You're going to have to flip preflop soon, there's not gonna be any postflop play. So, my decision for when I wanted to flip would depend on how the table was playing.

If everyone was mostly playing tight and there was a lot of blind-stealing, I would pass here and just continue stealing blinds and wait for a better hand to 3bet.

If everyone was gambooling, I would pass here and play tighter hoping to coast a couple spots before I had to flip.

If SB was the only laggy player at the table and I felt that I would be able to pick up the blinds a lot with him gone, I'd 3bet.

If I only cared about first, I'd 3bet.

SB should just go allin here with like any hand. Does he know that? Dunno. Is he hoping just to steal the blinds and doesn't know about how Omaha hand ranges stack up preflop? Dunno. Does he think you only do this with AA/KK so he'd fold his lower pair hands? You have a little fold equity, but not much. All in all, I think I'd end up doing the same as you.

[Silent A]

OK, villain needs 40% equity (34K in an 86K pot) to push back. If he thinks you'll only re-raise with AAxx or KKxx you can expect him to call with the top 30% of hands (assuming he's not scared about bubbling out - you don't say what the prize structure is, and this is important for proper analysis).

Against the top 30% of hands you have about 46% equity. Your total EV in this scenario is ...

EV = 46000(0.46) - 40000(0.54) = -440

So it's neutral EV for you if his hand range for the initial raise is high enough that he's already commited to the pot.

If his initial raising range is bigger, then this play is even more +EV since you'll have some fold equity AND you'll still be neutral EV when he calls.

However, if he only raises with the top 20% of hands then your rasie is definitely -EV.

Now all this is in terms of chip EV. I checked out the typical Pokerstars structure for the final table of a $10R PLO tourney. For a $3500 prize pool, the final 7 places pay about ...

1st 1000
2nd 700
3rd 420
4th 280
5th 230
6th 180
7th 130

So the structure is really quite flat ($50 per place) until you get to the top 3, so right now chip EV is pretty close to money EV. There is some value in waiting out the smallstack, but not much. However, most of your opponents (the guys with 40K stacks, including your Villain) probably will want to wait him out, especially since he's about to enter the blinds. Therefore, I think you have more fold equity here than optimal strategy would suggest.

In the end, everything depends on what your villain's raising and calling ranges are.

You say he raised you blind "often" and folded to your only re-raise. However, this only suggests that he may be a loose raiser. The circumstatnces when he raised before, exactly how many times in how many opportunities, when exactly you finally defended (was it the last time he raised?), and whether or not he has passed on an opportunity lately are also important. He could have be setting you up just for this spot - but that might be giving him too much credit.

Overall, you have reason to believe he raises light here and can be expected to fold some hands, so your play is OK.

But for it to be solidly +EV you need more evidence that he raises light AND folds because it's from his folds that you derive most of your positive value.

[RoundTower]

[ QUOTE ]
often raising my big blind when it was folded to him in the small blind. The one time I had pot reraised him he folded.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is good enough for me, stick it in.

[bFunk]

Villain called and showed AK98 and won with a straight. I was really upset with myself at first and thought I had overplayed my hand. I felt better about myself when I looked up the percentages and it was 56 v. 44. (I'm new to PLO so I don't know the numbers that well. Seeing I wasn't that far behind an AKxx hand made me think it wasn't that bad of a reraise) I was going for a top place so I did make a conscious decision to play aggressive.

[RoundTower]

yeah you expect to be on average a small underdog when he calls here, but if he ever folds the push is worthwhile. But many players aren't going to fold after raising here no matter what they have, so it's good that you saw him raise and fold to the push before. Also stack sizes are good for this, because he is getting only 3-2 on his money so he can talk himself into folding more easily.