KK .25/50 Stars. What to do on flop?

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

wow. you actually folded? without cap i would go 5 bets there without hesitation =P

[bozlax]

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okay i am just looking at this for the first time. the flop fold is horrific. any fold is really bad. i am like 90% sure you are ahead on the flop probably against aq and something else.

don't fold overpairs especially in big pots please.

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Without reads? Pah. You have to make so many unlikely assumptions to be "90% sure you are ahead on the flop" (e.g. both villans will overplay a hand with a queen preflop that isn't QQ, and then disregard the preflop action in playing the flop) as to make this completely ridiculous and results-oriented. It's more likely that you're only behind to SB's two-pair and the other player has AQ, than that both of them have a naked queen and you're ahead.

[BigBadBabar]

just a gut feeling i had.

[bozlax]

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just a gut feeling i had.

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lollerskates

Yeah, I had the same feeling. I also had a feeling that Kerowo was wrong here:

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Now you can join the "I saw someone cap a flush draw on the flop" club.

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as soon as I saw that Hero did, in fact, fold. We level posters gOOt. If he'd called this would be a flush like 1000% of the time.

[fretelöo]

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Call. What else?

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Folding isn't out of the question. SB bet out into the preflop 3-bettor and capper, and MP3, having pf3'd your UTG pfr, 3-bets your flop raise, then SB caps. What do YOU think these guys have? I don't think you have to reduce your outs too much, as players at these limits usually aren't savvy enough to play a draw hard (unless it's the aforementioned J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), but that said you're only getting 11:1 immediate, and if you hit one of your outs and still getting action you're going to have to be cautious so your implieds suck.

Fold.

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Sorry, didn't even respond further to this thread. Anyway, I agree the action looks scary, and now that the results are out it's hard to do any further serious analysis, but my reasoning for the initial response was like this: We're getting 11.5:1 as MP will of course call. That would mean we need exactly 4 outs if we're positive that we're behind - which we don't get. However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop.

And yes, having TP2K, possibly with a bdfd to go with it will warrant a 3bet from MP etc. (the proof is this exact hand and Heros - in retrospect - horrible laydown).

I'm not particularily pleased with my hand anymore, but I'm not quite ready to give up yet.

[Second Toughest]

An easy call IMO. The pot is simply too big. The stuttering action on the turn means that had you called, you’d have probably got to showdown.

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.....However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop..

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Don’t understand logic here. Not sure it’s reasonable to say that you need half as many outs to justify a call if you think you are 50% likely to be ahead. If you think you are ahead 50% of time, wouldn’t you consider a raise? Wouldn’t you call here if you thought you were ahead just 10% of the time (i.e. you have to be 90% certain you’re beat to fold)?

[Jeans]

I would actually call this down, at these stakes there are people making crazy moves, he might just have a queen or nothing

[fretelöo]

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An easy call IMO. The pot is simply too big. The stuttering action on the turn means that had you called, you’d have probably got to showdown.

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.....However, if we're just ahead here 50%, then we need only two, and it becomes a thin call, but a call. Given the hesitation anyone should have folding an OP, I call the flop..

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Don’t understand logic here. Not sure it’s reasonable to say that you need half as many outs to justify a call if you think you are 50% likely to be ahead. If you think you are ahead 50% of time, wouldn’t you consider a raise? Wouldn’t you call here if you thought you were ahead just 10% of the time (i.e. you have to be 90% certain you’re beat to fold)?

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No, because being good 10% isn't enough as you'll have to pay additional bets on turn and river. Right now you get 11:1 but if someone has a good draw and someone has AA, let's say, you'll likely have to pay 2 more, maybe even a lot more than that, on turn and river.

What I wrote is probably bull if taken literally. Basically it's the opposite of "I'm often ahead and if not, I have some outs to fall back on".

Here it's the opposite case: I'm often behind but got some outs to chase and the price for that seems to me marginally appropriate given the few times we're actually ahead already.

[marchron]

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honestly.. what are we ahead of here? I'd lay 10:1 that we have the worst of the 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]Weellllll, MP3 could have AQ and SB could have JT[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

For 10-1 odds I might take you up on that, lolz.

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