100NL - KK on A high board, BUT with history..

[Sirasoni]

Villain in question is a multi-tabling tag running at 20/16/3 over a 6k hand sample. From what I can tell, he seems to be a winner and regular these stakes, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is 2p2.

My first big hand against him was this:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $38.75
BB: $122.75
<u>UTG: $193.10</u>
<u>Hero (MP): $128.00</u>
CO: $231.90
BTN: $61.00

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.00</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls $8.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($25.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18.00</font>, UTG calls $18.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($61.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($61.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $33.00</font>, Hero calls $33.00

Pot Size: $127.50 ($3 Rake)

UTG had 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Fives) and LOST (-$63.00)
Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Queens and Jacks) and WON (+$61.50)

However, just one hand of history is not enough to predict a player's entire post-flop pattern. What do you guys think about this hand, which occurred maybe 15 minutes later? (Also considering that we can assume villain knows we can check to induce bluffs)

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $53.35
BB: $100.00
<u>UTG: $157.60</u>
<u>Hero (MP): $209.30</u>
CO: $208.35
BTN: $12.00

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $3.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.00</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls $8.50

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($25.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18.00</font>, UTG calls $18.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($61.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($61.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $43.00</font>, Hero...

[Leobzook]

I am folding especially since 7X seems to be in his range based on first hand.

[Badgerpoo]

He could have a missed spade draw, or a lot of pairs lower than the A. The hands you beat waaay outnumber the ones that crush you IMO. I call here because he seems to raise quite widely from UTG.

[Im_a_retard]

Your turn check induced this river bruff/vbet. I usually check KK on this flop.

[Sirasoni]

Thanks for the replies so far.

im_a: Is this standard? I would hate checking KK on this flop and having to fold almost any turn to a decent size bet, whether or not villain has anything. I feel that the Ace is good for fold equity (if he has KK-). Of course, we don't WANT the lower pps to fold, which is the difficult thing because the hand gets pretty hard to play if they don't fold early, resulting in situations like this hand.

[brwnbLs]

it seems in hand one he was going for a small block bet thinking his hand was good, on hand 2 he seems to valuebet a big bigger, probably hoping to get paid - this seems like a one way trip to valuetown and I don't think villain shows up with air/missedFD enough to justify a call.

[SilentNoise]

i snap call the river given history in first hand.