Who do you have a bet on to win Idol? - Page 3

JPT III · #21 05-14-2007, 05:02 PM

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I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

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This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

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Great post/advice. I couldn't agree more.

TheVegan · #22 05-14-2007, 06:17 PM

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I am in a [censored] position this year killed me.

I invested $1500.

I have 10 Blake and 15 Melinda and a possible +$120 if Blake LL than Jordin.

What happens with this LL and remaining shares is how much i am going to cash out of this thing. Any ideas on what you guys would do in my position.

I need a Blake Melinda final, but I am scared that Jordin is going to spoil everything for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very bad mindset for a winning gambler to have. The $1500 is gone and you should forget about it. As poker players say, money in the pot doesn't belong to you anymore. Simply maximize your EV from here on out.

1. The only question with the 10 Blake and the 15 Melinda should be whether holding or selling has higher EV.

2. Unless you have some way to unwind the $120 LL bet there is nothing to think about. Wait and see what the result is.

3. Look around for any new +EV betting opportunities that are within your bankroll.

This forum is no different from the poker forums. Winning gambling is about making good +EV decisions, minding your bankroll, and then letting the results take care of themselves. Managing for results is for fish.

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Great post/advice. I couldn't agree more.

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Yes AMEN to that JPT III. StellarWind comes up with some more excellent advice and/or analysis.

mynamewastaken · #23 05-14-2007, 07:30 PM

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If we're all so clever, why didn't any of us bet all the money we had in the world on Lakisha *not* winning after the top-24 show? At that point, Simon said the other contestants might as well go home, but with a little foresight we could have seen she was very unlikely to win. It'd have been a good bet - I wonder what the odds would have been?

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Um... right after Lakisha's "And I Am Telling You" I shorted her at -300. She was the odds-on fav. I posted about it on this forum. I also had Blake LL Lakisha and Jordin LL Lakisha.

At this point I've cashed out Melinda stock and am riding on Jordin, tho I will break even if she doesn't win because I have a bet on an o23.5 year old winner at VIP (got it at -120).

I also have a nice sized bet on at least 1 male in the final 2 at +150, so I'm really hoping Melinda goes this week.

hogua · #24 05-14-2007, 08:37 PM

I still have 100 contract of Jordin (ave price $7.10).

$1100 on Jordin to last longer than Blake

and I'm short a whomping 10 contract on Blake.

The other position have either been cashed out or voted off.

4Tay · #25 05-15-2007, 12:48 AM

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Jordin.

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Just wanted to add that I got Melinda to go home this week at +253 on Pinny.

TheVegan · #26 05-15-2007, 02:44 AM

I added a couple bets. I bet at two places for Jordin to go home. I took 8-1. I don't think I'll win but I think it's a very good bet. Suzy brought this to my attention because I forgot to even look at the elimination odds.
Win or lose: Thanks Suzy!

TheVegan · #27 05-19-2007, 12:07 AM

I just put in an offer on Blake +325. I don't like his voice but I like the support he gets from the voters and I think based on previous voting it can go either way. I can't believe I am about to say this but GO Blake!!!

TheVegan · #28 05-19-2007, 11:55 PM

Hey someone picked up my offer of +325. Was it anyone here? I'd hate to take anyone's money here but at the same time I would be happy, as long as I am losing, to give it to someone here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] GO BLAKE!!!! I figure if Taylor can win then.....

Shrug · #29 05-20-2007, 01:07 AM

All I have left is one contract on Blake and an old LL on him vs. Jordin
So, Vegan...we be rootin' in da same camp!!
GOOOO BLAKE!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

suzy89222 · #30 05-20-2007, 05:39 PM

well, i wasnt strong enough to quit AI betting. looks like we're in this one together too, vegan. i had blake +330 to outlast jordin on wsex from a couple weeks ago, and now i just put a bunch more on blake at +315. we'll probably lose, but you never know on that stupid show.