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#11
05-14-2007, 03:44 PM
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Re: KTo on A high flop
Calling the flop is OK, folding is OK, too (with a possible flush draw and 4 opponents I tend more towards folding). Fold turn 100%.
I have no idea how anyone can ever raise this flop unless he hates money. I don't know how we can 3-bet the flop, given that nobody raised so far. 
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#12
05-14-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: KTo on A high flop
[ QUOTE ]
You're over-counting your outs. [/ QUOTE ] When I first read this hand I was thinking about 3 outs. That was just a guess figuring K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are bad much of the time, the remaining T good most of the time, and the other K's maybe half the time (behind QJ or any Ax two pair). Does anyone really quantify these estimates with any more accuracy than this? For instance, we could figure out statistically the chance that one of the four opponents (with random starting hands) has a heart draw and discount accordingly. Come to think of it, maybe it'd be a good idea for a post to set up a "count your outs..." quiz of some kind. I might put some scenerios together where I get into trouble.
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#13
05-14-2007, 03:57 PM
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Re: KTo on A high flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.) [/ QUOTE ] You're over-counting your outs. [/ QUOTE ] How many outs do you see?
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#14
05-14-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: KTo on A high flop
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] NNNNNNNNNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSS!! !!!!!!! (Okay, folding here isn't nearly as bad as raising the flop, and it isn't a terrible fold.) [/ QUOTE ] You're over-counting your outs. [/ QUOTE ] How many outs do you see? [/ QUOTE ] I'd call it 2.5-3. Beyond just the flush draw, a king puts 3 to a straight on the board, and QJ is an easy limping hand at this sort of table. This is a huge rio-red-flag hand for me.
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#15
05-14-2007, 04:10 PM
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Re: KTo on A high flop
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call it 2.5-3. Beyond just the flush draw, a king puts 3 to a straight on the board, and QJ is an easy limping hand at this sort of table. This is a huge rio-red-flag hand for me. [/ QUOTE ] I'd call that overly conservative. It's also true that QT, JT, and KJ (and possibly KQ) are limping hands, and those hands will pay two bets to see the river with their pair plus gutshot combos, plus they'll (sometimes) pay off on the river, and this increases your implied odds. I think the balance comes out pretty close to even, so that the only necessary discount is the flush draw. Edit: Added parthetical comments
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